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📆 Fri, 22 Aug 2025 | MLB | Cloudy 12°
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🌤️ Good morning

I’ve been reminded this week that choice can be overrated.

Open roads and endless options sound appealing.

But progress often comes from a tunnel; fewer choices, sharper focus, forward motion.

The same is true in childcare property: success comes from narrowing in on the right markets, not chasing every opportunity.

With that in mind, here’s what stood out in CREW this week.
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​🧭 In Today's CREW

💰 Private Credit: The Silent Engine Behind Childcare Projects?
🏗️ Childcare DAs: The Playbook for Need Assessments
📍 VIC: Clyde North: Childcare Balance Shifting as Pipeline Moves In
🔟 Insights: Rewriting Childcare DA’S
🚀 QLD: Under Construction: 95-103 East St, Jimboomba
🏗️ Goulburn’s Childcare “Honeypot”: Approvals, Pushback & What Matters Next
🆕 New DAs and Service Approvals This Week

💰 Private Credit: The Silent Engine Behind Childcare Projects?

🧠 The big picture

Banks have grown increasingly cautious about childcare development finance. Even with a signed operator lease, they often hold back until approvals are in place and construction is ready to commence.

That creates a funding gap. Private credit is filling it — and in doing so, it’s becoming a silent but crucial driver of new childcare centres.

📍 State Of Play

Capital stack basics:

• Senior debt → lowest risk, cheapest
• Mezzanine → higher risk/return
• Preferred equity → sits between debt and equity
• Equity → highest risk, 20%+ expected returns

Banks: cautious on non-income producing sites and DA-stage projects. Even with a lease in place, they prefer big-name tenants and won’t typically fund land + soft costs. They want shovel-ready projects with approvals secured.

Private lenders: faster, flexible, relationship-driven. Will fund earlier in the cycle, provide higher leverage, and support mid-tier or emerging operators where banks hesitate.

💡 Developer tip: If your project needs early-stage or DA funding, private credit may be the only path forward — even with a lease secured.

📊 By The Numbers (Indicative Returns)

• Senior debt → ~8–10%
• Mezzanine → ~12–15%
• Preferred equity → ~15–18%
• Equity → 20%+

👉 Translation for childcare: private debt costs more than banks, but it can unlock land and DA-stage funding that banks usually won’t touch — enabling developers to progress operator-backed projects sooner.

💡 Developer tip: Model your returns with a higher cost of capital upfront — but balance that against the time advantage of moving ahead while others wait for bank approvals.

🚦 Inflection Point: Debt vs Equity

Now: Oversupply of private debt → pricing is softening.

Equity: Scarcer, but sentiment is shifting back as rates ease and debt returns compress.

Caution flags: Regulatory overhang (Early Childhood Safety Bill 2025, compliance crackdowns) and operator controversies (closures, “for-profit” debates) are prompting sharper due diligence and making capital more selective.

Opportunity: Long-leased childcare centres with trusted operators, strong governance, and resilient catchments remain attractive to family offices and HNW investors seeking stable community infrastructure income.

💡 Developer tip: Equity is circling back to childcare — but capital is cautious. Projects anchored by well-governed operators with compliance credibility will attract the most interest.

🏫 Why Childcare Is In Focus

Funding gaps bridged: Private lenders step in where banks pause — particularly for land + DA costs, even when an operator lease is secured.

Beyond the majors: Banks often prefer national brands (e.g. G8, Guardian, Affinity). Private lenders are more open to quality-focused, well-capitalised mid-tier and emerging operators with solid track records (e.g. Explorers, Edge, Green Leaves, Harmony).

Flexibility matters: Private lenders can cover early costs, structure around unique site conditions, and allow higher gearing to get projects moving.

Social infra appeal: While private credit money has flooded into apartments and logistics, niche sectors like childcare offer compelling risk-adjusted returns for lenders who understand them.

💡 Developer tip: Mid-tier operators may be on the ascendency. Developers who package projects with these groups can often access private credit more readily than banks — and may capture upside as these operators scale.

⚖️ Regulation Watch

Despite media headlines, private credit isn’t the “wild west.” Funds operate under ASIC licences, AML/KYC, and governance obligations. Regulators (APRA/ASIC) are collecting data to size the market. Expect more oversight — but also recognition of the sector’s importance in delivering essential community infrastructure.

💡 Developer tip: Expect more reporting and governance requirements over time — work with lenders who already operate at institutional standards.

🔮 What’s Next

Consolidation: Too many players, too much capital → rationalisation ahead.

Growth: Major lenders want to double exposure within 5 years, creating more appetite for mid-market deals like childcare.

Maturity: Within a decade, private credit will likely stand alongside banks and REITs as a mainstream source of development finance.

💡 Developer tip: As competition among private lenders intensifies, use it to your advantage — negotiate harder on pricing, terms, and leverage.

💡 CREW Takeaway

For childcare developers and investors:

• Secure operator partnerships early (as always).
• Understand where private credit fits in the capital stack.
• Use flexible capital to bridge DA-stage and mid-tier operator projects that banks hesitate on.

📌 Private credit isn’t a threat. It’s a bridge — and in today’s market, it may be the difference between a stranded DA and a trading childcare centre.

🏗️ Childcare DAs: The Playbook for Need Assessments

🧠 The Big Picture

Many councils still ask for “community need” to approve new LDCs. No national standard, but industry follows a consistent evidence-led framework.
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NSW twist: Comply with the Child Care Planning Guideline (CCPG) → Councils generally can’t demand a need test.

💡 Why It Matters

Faster approvals, fewer RFIs. Keeps focus on access, amenity, quality; not competitor protection.
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👉 Even where a Needs Assessment isn’t formally required for planning, it remains best practice and a key piece of due diligence — often expected by capital partners, valuers, and boards before funding or acquisition.

📍 State Of Play

• NSW: CCPG under Education SEPP → councils discouraged from refusing on “oversupply” if CCPG/NQF/BCA met. Needs tests generally not valid.
• VIC: Councils often request Needs Assessments under VPP Clauses 52.45 & 65. Objections frequently cite “oversupply,” so robust demand evidence is critical.
• QLD: No uniform rule; councils regularly require Needs Assessments in development applications. Strongest in SEQ growth corridors where supply debates are heated.
• WA: Needs Assessments commonly sought, especially by metro councils (e.g. Stirling, Cockburn). Strong evidence helps mitigate “too many centres” objections.
• SA: Less formalised, but Needs Assessments are often requested to address perceived oversupply and traffic/amenity concerns. Robust data helps smooth approvals.

📊 By The Numbers (Rules Of Thumb)

• Catchment: 5–7 min drive (inner metro); 7–10 (middle/outer); 10–15 (regional).
  👉 Some operators (and our own assessments) use a 4-min metro drivetime at Wed 8am to reflect real drop-off patterns.
• Attendance: ~45% of 0–5s in centre-based care (industry benchmark), typically equal to 3.0–3.3 days/week.
• Sustainable occupancy: ~88% (mid-80s stabilised, 88% as balance point).
• Balance ratio: Metro ~70–90 places / 100 kids aged 0–5 (regional lower).
• Market trend: Nationally near balance; local pockets tight or oversupplied.

🛠 How It Works (Methodology)

1. Define catchment: Drive-time boundaries calibrated to parent behaviour (as above).
2. Size demand: 0–5 cohort now, opening year, +3 years (split 0–2 vs 3–5).
3. Audit supply: Current centres, licensed places, NQS ratings, fees, pipeline timing.
4. Convert demand → FTE: (0–5 × attendance × days ÷ 5).
5. Compare to effective supply: Licensed places × sustainable occupancy.
6. Close loop: Deficit/surplus analysis; run sensitivities (attendance, occupancy, pipeline slippage).
7. Ground-truth: Waitlists, school/job proximity, traffic, hours, differentiation.

🔎 Between The Lines

• Licensed ≠ usable: staffing + room mix cut real capacity.
• Commuter inflows justify higher ratios — document them.
• Discount DA-only pipeline unless verified; time-adjust.
• Metro nuance: Parents rarely cross multiple competing centres in peak drop-off windows — the 4-minute catchment helps capture this behaviour.

🧭 NSW Focus: CCPG

Councils shouldn’t refuse on oversupply if CCPG/NQF/BCA met.
Lead with CCPG compliance matrix (site, indoor/outdoor, acoustic, traffic, CPTED).
If asked for “need,” pivot to access and service outcomes.

👀 What To Watch

• Policy: CCS boosts + possible “three-day guarantee” (2026) + free 3–4yo kinder → higher utilisation.
• Supply: Softer build costs may un-stall approvals; workforce still the cap.
• Rates: Easing cost of capital could restart paused projects.

✅ The Bottom Line

No legislated national model, but a de facto standard exists:

• Drive-time catchments
• FTE demand vs effective supply
• Verified pipeline + sensitivities

In NSW → anchor DA to CCPG to avoid a back-door need test.

📚 Sources Councils Accept

• Official data: ABS Census/ERP + state forecasts • Dept of Education • Productivity Commission • ACECQA National Register • StartingBlocks • DA trackers.
• Market intelligence: Operator calls • fee surveys • waiting list checks • commercial reports (e.g. CBRE 2025 Childcare Report).
• Expert evidence: Reports by economists and specialist consultants (e.g. Business Geographics, MacroPlan, Urbis, Foresight, SGS Economics) are often relied on by councils, panels, and the P&E Court.

🏗️ VIC: Clyde North — Childcare Balance Shifting as Pipeline Moves In

Lot BB 2125 Thompsons Road forms part of the Oak Grove Estate, a PSP-backed community positioned in Clyde North’s fastest-growing corridor (population growth 6.8% p.a.). The 2,127 sqm site is offered via BS Land — EOI closing 11 Sept 2025.

📊 Market Scan

• Now: Severe undersupply (DSR ~9.94). ~380–400 places needed for balance at ~88% occupancy.
• Committed Supply: Aspire Early Education (opened Aug 2025, 126 places) + KingKids, 27 S Parisien Rd (opening Sept 2025, ~90 places) = 216 places confirmed.
• Pipeline: Six DAs (~540 places assumed). At 60% conversion (~325 places), residual undersupply of ~60–80 places remains.
• Window: 2–4 years for first-mover proponents.

📍 Location & Surrounding Development

• Oak Grove Estate (Goldmate Property): Subject site is part of Oak Grove, a 92 ha masterplanned community (~1,300 lots), the first Victorian project by NSW-based developer Goldmate. Staging is underway with titles expected progressively through 2025–2026. The estate will feature 14.5 ha of parklands, a 7.2 ha central lake, wetlands boardwalks, playgrounds, and a café. The childcare site occupies a front-door position on Thompsons Rd, directly adjacent Wulerrp Secondary College and a future sports oval, and within walking distance of the St Germain Shopping Centre.
• Neighbouring communities: Berwick Waters (Frasers Property), Smiths Lane (Mirvac), St Germain, Orana (Balcon).
• Smiths Lane (Mirvac): Sales Office site at O’Connor Ave earmarked for an ELC DA.
• St Germain: Town centre ELC (KingKids) under construction, opening Sept 2025.
• Minta (Stockland): Tech + residential precinct; childcare DA in assessment (~3 km N).
• Fairground Promenade (Stockland project):
  • Site sold Dec 2023 to SPV for $3.28M (5,148 sqm).
  • DA lodged for 21 townhouses + childcare centre (design & documentation).
• Other nearby: Creswell St DA; Sofra Rd DA; Pound Rd DA (Frasers’ Five Farms); St Germain Blvd site opposite Coles Health Precinct.

📈 Key Catchment Metrics (2 km radius)

• 0–4 pop: 1,067 (2024) → 1,870 (2030)
• Total pop: 9,864 → 20,358
• Growth: 6.8% p.a.
• SEIFA IRSAD: 7
• Attendance: 45% benchmark*
• Child-to-place ratio: 9.94

* Standard industry practice (demographers, economists, social planners).

🚧 Pipeline Supply (2 km radius)

• 15S Smiths Lane (PA25-0188) – Childcare centre + 160 dwellings
• 2S Fairground Promenade (PA24-044) – 21 townhouses + childcare centre
• 2S Cresswell St (PA24-0470) – Childcare centre (approval granted)
• 35 O’Connor Ave (PA25-0437) – Childcare centre (lodged Aug 2025)
• 1525S Pound Rd (Lot F) – Childcare centre
• 75S Sofra Rd (Lot B) – Childcare centre

Assumptions:

• Average ~90 places per DA.
• ~540 places total.
• 60% conversion = ~325 places likely to reach Service Approval.

🟢 Weighted Scoring & Traffic Lights

Indicative Viability Score:8.0–8.2 / 10

💰 Fees & Market Positioning

• $136–137/day (Cranbourne East).
• Premium tolerance supported by SEIFA 7+.

🧐 Developer/Operator POV

• Now: Severe undersupply, strong demographics, SEIFA 7+ affluence = compelling.
• Next 12 months: Aspire (126 places) + KingKids (~90 places) absorb some demand, but imbalance remains.
• Medium-term: Pipeline projects could add ~325 places, yet attrition and staging delays create room for additional supply.
• Window: 2–4 years viable for proponents who secure operators early.

👉 See all Pics & Clips here​

1. 2S Creswell St (DA)
2. 15S Smiths Lane — DA (PA25-0188) for childcare + multi dwellings (160)
3. 75S Sofra Rd (DA; earthworks underway)
4. 1525S Pound Rd — Frasers’ Five Farms (DA)
5. 35 O’Connor Ave — Smiths Lane Sales Office (ELC DA earmarked)
6. 2125 Thompsons Rd — subject site offered by B&S Land

📌 CREW Take

​2125 Thompsons Road offers one of the more compelling childcare plays in Clyde North.

​Aspire’s opening in Aug 2025 and King Kids’ September 2025 launch will ease pressure.

But with 6.8% p.a. growth and a SEIFA 7 profile, undersupply persists.

Even with six pipeline DAs, attrition and staging will likely stretch delivery, leaving a 2–4 year window for developers who align operators early.

🔟 Insights Rewriting Australian Childcare DAs

A playbook for developers, operators & investors.

1️⃣ Flex-Shells: 60–80 Place Models

What it does: NSW’s Education SEPP allows streamlined approval pathways for centres up to 60 places. In the ACT, some residential zones (e.g. RZ1) restrict childcare centres to around 80 places.
​Why it matters: Many developers continue to propose 80–100 place centres, which typically require full DAs and longer assessment cycles.
​Go do this: Explore modular 60–80 place designs that align with SEPP and local zone caps. Pre-check parking and traffic to give projects a better shot at complying development.
​Sources: NSW Education SEPP 2017; ACT Planning Codes.

2️⃣ Pipeline Plateau → Regional Surge

What it does: After several years of rapid growth, new DA activity nationally appears to be levelling off. Recent industry reports (CBRE 2025) highlight more activity in regional growth corridors such as Moreton Bay, Hunter, and South-West WA.
​Why it matters: These regions combine lower land costs with councils that often process applications faster than inner-metro councils.
​Go do this: Consider shifting site sourcing to regions with faster approval cycles and strong population growth.
​Source: CBRE Childcare Market Report 2025.

3️⃣ Refurb-Boost vs Greenfield

What it does: Councils are receiving more amendment DAs for expansions or refurbishments of existing centres. Operators increasingly see value in upgrading or adding rooms to under-utilised sites.
​Why it matters: Expansions typically reach the market sooner than new-builds and require lower capital outlay.
​Go do this: Target ageing <80-place centres with room for expansion; pitch fast-turn refurbishments as lower-risk growth plays.
​Source: Industry observation; ACECQA National Register (service approval history).

4️⃣ Parking Premium

What it does: Many LGAs (e.g. Camden, Casey, Moreton Bay) now apply a benchmark of 1 parking space per 8 children, alongside requirements for safe on-site queuing/drop-off.
​Why it matters: Traffic and parking remain the most common reasons for RFIs and DA deferrals.
​Go do this: Design around a 1:8 parking ratio with compliant queuing. Commission traffic and swept-path studies before DA lodgement.
​Sources: Council development control plans; planning officer guidance notes.

5️⃣ Mixed-Use Magnet

What it does: Childcare centres are increasingly co-located with GP clinics, neighbourhood centres, or retail.
​Why it matters: Mixed-use projects often attract lenders more readily (diversified rent rolls) and may progress faster through planning where land-use synergies are recognised.
​Go do this: Explore 60–80 place designs as part of broader mixed-use concepts, especially near health or daily-needs retail anchors.
​Source: CBRE Childcare Report 2025; market observations.

6️⃣ DA Funnel: Not All Lodgements Get Built

What it does: Industry analysis suggests only a portion of lodged childcare DAs proceed to construction. Some approvals lapse or are shelved.
​Why it matters: Relying on raw DA counts tends to overstate future supply.
​Go do this: Apply a conservative filter (assume 50–65% conversion) when assessing pipeline supply.
​Source: CBRE Childcare Report 2025; CREW analysis of ACECQA service approvals.

7️⃣ Seasonal Lodgement Cycles

What it does: Many councils see clustering of childcare DA lodgements around financial year-end and pre-Christmas.
​Why it matters: Lodging in peak periods risks longer queues in council assessment pipelines.
​Go do this: Aim for early-year lodgement (Feb–Apr) to avoid backlog.
​Source: Industry practitioner observation; council DA registers.

8️⃣ Place-Size Shift: Mid-Pack Wins

What it does: After a wave of larger 100+ place centres, approvals and licences show a gradual rebalancing toward mid-sized 70–80 place services.
​Why it matters: These sizes align with both tenant demand and common planning benchmarks.
​Go do this: Standardise prototypes around 70–80 places, rather than defaulting to larger 100+ models.
​Source: ACECQA National Register; industry research (CBRE, Colliers).

9️⃣ RFI & Refusal Themes: Traffic Tops

What it does: Traffic and queueing concerns consistently rank as the leading cause of RFIs for childcare DAs, followed by acoustic impacts and (in some jurisdictions) lack of demonstrated community need.
​Why it matters: Each RFI can add weeks or months to approvals.
​Go do this: Pre-submit traffic impact assessments and acoustic plans to pre-empt likely queries.
​Source: Council DA feedback reports; planning consultant commentary.

🔟 Operator Footprints & Co-Locations

What it does: Major operators roll out in distinct geographic corridors (e.g. Goodstart, Busy Bees, Guardian). Many favour co-location near schools or medical hubs.
​Why it matters: Aligning site designs with operator “signature specs” increases the chance of pre-commitment.
​Go do this: Maintain an operator watchlist; target sites that fit their demonstrated rollout patterns.
​Source: ACECQA National Register; operator network announcements.

🚀 Bottom line

Right-sizing, modular designs, traffic/acoustic studies at lodgement, and mixed-use co-locations are emerging as the most reliable strategies to cut DA risks, boost ROI, and stay ahead of tightening planning rules.

🏗️ Jimboomba: Oversupplied or Opportunity?

🧠 The Big Picture

Jimboomba, 50 km south of Brisbane in the Logan growth corridor, sits at the junction of the Mt Lindsay Hwy and Beaudesert Rd. It’s a semi-rural township transitioning into a greenfield growth node.

The subject site at 95–103 East Street, Jimboomba sits on the eastern side of the Mt Lindsay Hwy, directly opposite new estates now approved. A childcare approval here raises the question: smart positioning ahead of demand, or just another layer of supply in an already crowded market?

📊 Supply vs Demand Snapshot

• Whole Jimboomba: 0.9 children per LDC place → oversupplied (vs 1.7 Greater Brisbane).
• East Street sector (east of Hwy): 184 children / 109 places = 1.69 DSR (balanced to mildly favourable).
• West side (around Jimboomba Primary): 110 children with concentrated supply = clear oversupply.

👉 On today’s ratios: oversupplied overall. On the eastside micro-catchment: balanced, with growth tailwinds.

📈 Pipeline Impact

Conservative Case (500 lots, 1–5 years)

• +100–125 children aged 0–4.
• Ratios shift from 1.69 → 2.7–2.8.
• Eastside moves into undersupply by Year 3–5.

Full Urban Footprint (125 ha → 1,000–1,250 lots)

• +220–310 children aged 0–4.
• Ratios shift from 1.69 → 3.7–4.5.
• At full build-out, catchment could justify 2–3 new centres eastside.

👉 The East Street site is not just a one-off bet — it’s positioned within a longer-term residential expansion zone.

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🏫 Competitive Landscape

West Side Stock (clustered near Jimboomba Primary)

East Side Stock (closer to East Street site)

🚦 Risk Matrix

🧭 Developer/Operator POV

• Short-term: East Street centre would open into apparent oversupply, with operators cautious and financiers wary.
• Medium-term: 500-lot absorption lifts eastside ratios into healthy undersupply.
• Long-term upside: Full 125-ha build-out (1,000–1,250 lots) could justify multiple new centres, positioning East Street as first-mover.
• Competition: Weak westside stock (Hills, Johanna, Milestones) vulnerable to churn. The real eastside contest is with The Learning Garden (2018).
• Highway effect: Mt Lindsay Hwy creates a behavioural barrier. Eastside parents prefer eastside care.

🎯 CREW Takeaway

Jimboomba headlines as oversupplied — but the East Street site tells a different story.

• Today: Risky. Oversupply, cautious operators, a soft start.
• Tomorrow: Balanced, then undersupplied eastside as estates deliver.
• Upside: Full build-out could more than double demand, supporting multiple centres.
• Positioning: East Street is a first-mover play — pain in years 1–2, upside in years 3–10+.

✅ Verdict:
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​The 95–103 East Street approval is a calculated bet on growth. For a well-capitalised developer/operator, it’s a chance to endure short-term softness in exchange for a long-term foothold in a growth corridor with significant upside.

🏗️ Goulburn’s Childcare “Honeypot”: Approvals, Pushback & What Matters Next

🧠 The big picture

• Developers swarm: Councillors say Goulburn has become a developer “honeypot”, with some players flipping DA-approved sites instead of building. On 19 Aug 2025, Council backed a probe into “land banking” and inappropriate siting.
• Pipeline is big but sticky: ~770+ places approved across Goulburn. But staff shortages keep approvals from translating into supply. Families still face long waits.
• Community fights back: Multiple proposals hit resistance over traffic, parking, and safety. At least one 113-place centre was refused outright (Deccan St, Jul 2024).

📍 Key sites in play

• 2 Record St, Bradfordville (Anglicare)
  • 100-place DA approved Nov 2023 → sold Aug 2024 → modified to 91 places (consent Jul 2025).
  • Operator: Anglicare; build 10–12 months; opening late 2026.
  • Council debated parking but declined extra conditions. Locals still unhappy.
• 130 Deccan St
  • Proposed 113 places. Refused Jul 2024: traffic, access, parking, amenity.
• 24 Quiberon Way (The Tillage)
  • Approved 95 places (2020); modified Aug 2025 (status: approved). Unclear delivery timing.
• 10 Ben Bullen Pl
  • 99 places DA lodged Dec 2024; still in assessment.
• 3 Chesterton St / Blakely’s Rd
  • 87 places proposed; returned Jul 2025.

💬 Politics & community temperature

• Council’s stance: Now openly investigating speculative DA-flipping. Expect stricter scrutiny on road hierarchy, traffic dispersal, and site suitability.
• Resident pushback: Deccan St refusal shows repeat objections: narrow streets, stacking risk, neighbourhood character.
• Workforce crunch: Even approved projects risk long delays; staffing is the gating factor.

📊 Market signals we’re watching

• Approvals ≠ supply. Quiberon, Bonneville, Record St all approved—yet unopened. The bottleneck is workforce, not planning.
• Right-sizing designs. Record St’s trim from 100 → 91 places shows developers pivoting to smaller, traffic-manageable formats.
• Flip risk is real. Record St’s post-DA sale (Aug 2024) is the playbook now in Council’s crosshairs.

🧭 CREW playbook

• Prioritise location. Choose arterial-adjacent or collector roads; scale ~80–95 places to balance catchment vs traffic.
• Lead with traffic narrative. Use AM peak counts + staggered session data; Council bought Anglicare’s “spread pick-ups” argument.
• Workforce proof. Pair DAs with a staffing plan (ECT pipeline, traineeships, relocation). No workforce = no centre.
• If buying DA-approved stock: Audit legacy conditions and community history. Land-banking scrutiny is rising.
• Engage early. Proactive resident consults + site-specific mitigations cut refusal risk.

🎯 Deal or No Deal: 2 Record St, Goulburn (Anglicare)

📍 Snapshot

• Location: Bradfordville, central Goulburn
• Approval history: 100 → 91 places after modification
• Operator: Anglicare (purchased Aug 2024)
• Delivery: build 10–12 months, opening late 2026
• Key changes: lift, fire booster, height +468mm
• Conditions: no extra parking despite calls

🚦 Traffic-light Viability

💬 Community sentiment

Residents raised traffic and safety repeatedly; Council just held the line. Future infill centres on tight streets will face uphill battles.

🧭 CREW view

• Deal if you’re Anglicare: scale trimmed, covenant strong.
• No Deal if you’re a flipper: DA resale heat is real.
• Wildcard: workforce—if staff don’t materialise, late 2026 is optimistic.

🆕 Childcare Approvals & Applications This Week

📊 33 childcare moves — 19 DAs, 10 Service Approvals, 4 early-stage.
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​Hotspots: Clyde, Craigieburn, Butler, Sydney’s west.

👉 Full 3-tab Excel (DAs, Service Approvals, Pipeline): Download the workbook​

👋 CREW is published by Jeff Gardner | 0402 359 305 | Next edition Friday 9am AEST