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📆 Fri, 3 October 2025 | MLB | Fine 12°
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Good morning 👋

Morayfield’s Oakey Flat Rd can likely support two ELCs. Sydney just set a childcare price record near $16m at ~4.4%. Supply is rising, demand is steady, and the 2026 three-day guarantee is the wind at our back.

In today's edition...​
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🧒🏽 Morayfield: Room for two new ELCs?
🏆 Sydney childcare sale sets new Aussie record
🍼 New Journey Early Learning: St Albans, VIC
📊 Childcare: supply up, demand steady-to-soft
🧸 Childcare deals wrap: September 2025
📈 New DAs This Week

🧒🏽 Morayfield: Room for two new ELCs?

🧭 On Brisbane’s northern fringe (City of Moreton Bay), Morayfield is a fast-growing, car-oriented family hub. New estates keep lifting the 0–5 cohort.

🏗️ Two new early-learning offers on Oakey Flat Rd:

• Little Zak’s: 150-place childcare + fitness precinct at 1–5 (target mid-2026).
• Shapes Early Learning: Now open at 285, next to a swim school.

Key question: Is there space for both and how will they split the market?

🔢 By the numbers (2 km MSAs)

• Population
  • 1–5: ~21,200 residents (2024); ~1,900 children aged 0–5
  • 285: ~8,500 residents; ~760 children aged 0–5
• Existing LDC supply
  • 1–5: 10 centres / 941 places → ~2.02 children per licensed place (higher occupancy pressure)
  • 285: 4 centres / 469 places → ~1.63 children per licensed place (more headroom per place)
• Published day rates
  • 1–5: ~$146–148/day
  • 285: ~$171/day
• Socio-economics (operator signal)
  • 1–5: Lower SEIFA, more renting → greater fee sensitivity
  • 285: Higher SEIFA, more vehicles/household → slightly less price sensitive
• Amenity fit
  • 1–5: Multiple gyms in-catchment → strong “drop-off + gym” pairing with the fitness co-anchor
  • 285: Swim school next door → after-school/weekend pull

🧠 Read on the market

• 1–5 = higher occupancy pressure. Bigger child pool combined with more centres means competition is active, but with sharp pricing and clear positioning, rooms should fill faster.
• 285 = more capacity per place. Smaller child pool and fewer centres reduce pressure; growth will lean more on execution (price, programs, convenience) despite fewer direct rivals.

✅ Bottom line

There’s space for both. These are distinct micro-markets along the same road, with only partial 2 km overlap.

• Trip patterns differ: Little Zak’s + fitness suits weekday routines; Shapes + swim adds weekend/after-school appeal.
• Absorption outlook:
  • 1–5: The higher-pressure ratio supports a quicker ramp if executed well.
  • 285: The greater headroom suggests steadier build-up and sustainable occupancy for a quality-led offer.

👀 What to watch

• Shapes occupancy: ~70% by Little Zak’s opening is achievable with disciplined pricing and targeted feeder-estate marketing.
• Little Zak’s funnel: Expression-of-interest volume, fee position vs local median, and gym-member bundles to capture “drop-off + gym” households.
• Pricing movements: Monthly scans of posted day rates/discounts to maintain value parity near 1–5 and support a quality premium at 285.

🧩 Why this works for the community

• One-stop routine: Care + fitness reduces trip-chaining for time-pressed families.
• Operator clarity: Distinct positioning minimises cannibalisation and lets each site lean into its usage pattern and value story.

🏆 Sydney childcare sale sets new Aussie record

Saltwater Preschool Newport (Northern Beaches) changed hands for $16,011,000, a new high-water mark for an Australian childcare asset.

🚨 Why it matters

• 💪 Pricing power at the top end: Investors are paying up for trophy metro childcare with long leases and affluent catchments.
• 📉 Benchmark yield: ~4.37%; as tight as it gets this year.

🔢 By the numbers

• 💰 Price: $16,011,000
• 📊 Implied yield: ~4.37% on ~$700k net income (triple-net)
• 👶 Licensed places:88 ⇒ ~$182k per place
• 🧾 Lease:20-year triple-net to 2045 + options

🧩 Between the lines

• 📈 Severe undersupply tailwind: Catchment has 400+ children on waitlists; only long-day-care option for ages 0–2 nearby.
• 👥 Campaign team: Stonebridge’s Michael Collins, Brett O’Neill, Tom Moreland, Kevin Tong.

🌏 Zoom out

• 🛡️ Defensive income play: CPI-like uplifts and long WALEs.
• 🧭 Pricing signal: Premium metro assets can still compress even as secondary stock reprices.

👀 What we’re watching

• 🎯 Yields: Will Sydney metro childcare reset toward the mid-4s for blue-chip assets?
• 📌 $ / place: Do Q4 deals confirm a new benchmark?

🍼 New Journey Early Learning: St Albans, VIC

Driving the news: Base build is done on a ~130-place childcare at 41–47 St Albans Rd, St Albans.

Where it is: A multicultural, working-family hub ~15–17km NW of Melbourne CBD on the Sunbury rail line, anchored by the St Albans & Ginifer stations. Ginifer was fully rebuilt (level-crossing removal) in 2016, improving safety and travel times.

Who lives here (2021 Census):

• 👥 Population:38,042 | Median age 36 | Avg household 2.8 ppl.
• 🌏 Cultural mix: 25.7% Vietnamese ancestry; 21.5% born in Vietnam (high bilingual potential).
• 💵 Median weekly household income: $1,205 (below VIC avg) → fee sensitivity.
• 🏠 Median weekly rent:$325 (2021 baseline).

Property pulse (affordability signal):

• 🏡 St Albans sits in Melbourne’s more affordable band; PRD’s “Affordable & Liveable” list (late-2024) shows ~$650k median house price. Good for value-focused family demand.
• Live median prices move month-to-month, but agents still pitch St Albans as sub-metro-median value.

Education & jobs anchors:

• 🎓 Victoria University – St Albans Campus (health & science hub) draws staff/students and stabilises weekday movement.
• 🧩 Proximity to Sunshine activity centre and broader Brimbank employment base supports day-time care demand.

Access & amenity:

• 🚆 Sunbury line + Metro Tunnel integration delivers higher-frequency services across the west; level-crossing removals on the line (incl. St Albans) have de-bottlenecked traffic.
• 🛍️ The site sits within the St Albans Activity Centre catchment targeted for intensification and public-realm uplift (structure plan in place).

Why this matters for the centre:

• 📈 Family density + affordability = large addressable market but price-elastic parents.
• 🗣️ CALD strength (Vietnamese/SE Asian) → bilingual staff & community engagement win hearts (and enrolments).

🚉 Rail-served commuters create reliable weekday demand, smoothing occupancy across the day.

🚧 Fitout is underway. Operator: Journey Early Learning. Service approval pending.

Why it matters:

• 📈 Demand > supply: PTA shows ~4.03 kids (0–5) per place vs 2.51 VIC avg. is supportive of this new capacity.
• 🚆 Access & visibility: Main-road frontage between St Albans & Ginifer stations; schools + VU nearby.
• 🧩 Execution: Scaled operator + new-build spec should shorten ramp to profitable occupancy (with calibrated pricing).

The site & team:

• 📍 Land: 2,571 sqm RGZ parcel; high-profile arterial location.
• 🧱 Builder: Lorden Vella | 🏗️ Architect: Ellis Group | 🏢 Developer: Allaf Property (SPV).
• ⏱️ Status: Fitout in progress

Catchment quick read:

• 🧒 Existing supply:~4 centres / 280 places
• 💳 Fees: ~$137–$152/day by age band (value-leaning market).
• 🌏 Demographics: Larger households; strong CALD presence → bilingual engagement likely to resonate.

Estimatef Financials (ex-GST; 3-yr delivery):

• 💰 TDC: $8.535m = Land $3.355m + Hard build $3.400m + Softs/playscape $1.780m (playscape $250k).
• 🏦 Land tax (VIC): assume non-recoverable → ~$41k p.a. drag on Net Income.
• 🧮 Market rent example: $4,800/place (= $624k p.a.) → Net Income after land tax ≈ $582,942.
• 🏷️ Value @ 6.0% cap: ≈ $9.72m gross / $9.52m net (–2% sale costs) → ~11.6% margin (below typical 20% target).

Rent to deliver a 20% developer margin (after 2% sale costs; land tax non-recoverable):

• 6.00% cap: $5,139/place/yr (≈ $668k p.a.)
• 5.75% cap: $4,938/place/yr (≈ $642k p.a.)
• 5.50% cap: $4,737/place/yr (≈ $616k p.a.)

👉 Translation: at a 6.0% exit cap, you need ~$5.1k/place/yr to deliver a 20% margin on this estimated cost base.

Operator lens (Journey):

• 🏪 Network across VIC/QLD/NT; community-led programs.
• 🎯 Price at/near local averages; CCS optimisation to drive occupancy in a value-sensitive catchment.

Risks & watch-outs:

• 💵 Fee elasticity: Catchment skews price-sensitive; calibrate fees carefully.
• 🧭 Competition: Monitor new DAs across the St Albans–Sunshine corridor.

📊 Childcare: supply up, demand steady-to-soft

📰 This briefing draws on Australia’s official Child Care Subsidy (CCS) dataset, published by the Australian Government Department of Education. It’s an administrative, claims-based dataset from CCS-approved providers and is released quarterly.

It tracks children, families, hours, fees, service counts, subsidy outlays, across Centre Based Day Care (CBDC), Outside School Hours Care (OSHC), Family Day Care (FDC) and In Home Care (IHC).

Why it matters: More centres opening while family usage is flat → tougher lease-up, tighter fee headroom (near caps), and wider gaps between strong vs saturated catchments. ⚠️

By the numbers (Jun-Q 2025):

• 👶 ~1.424m children; 👨‍👩‍👧 1.006m families (+0.4% / +0.6% YoY), avg 26.7 hrs/week
• 🏢 15,214 approved services; 9,684 are CBDC (~64%)
• 💵 Avg hourly fee $13.40 (+6.7% YoY); CBDC $14.00; OSHC $9.70
• ⛔ CBDC cap $14.29; ACT ~$15.70 & WA ~$14.30 sit above; ~63% of CBDC at/under cap
• 💸 $3.86b CCS/ACCS paid in the quarter (+5.6% YoY); ~85% to CBDC

Mix shift: 📉 CBDC families slightly down YoY; 📈 OSHC families up — stronger near schools & before/after-school hours.

🧷 New policy tailwind: the 3-day guarantee (from 5 Jan 2026)

What changes:

• 🧩 All eligible families get at least 72 hours of subsidised care per fortnight (~3 days/week), regardless of activity levels.
• 🎯 Families with higher recognised activity still access up to 100 hours/fortnight.
• 🖤 Families caring for First Nations children can access 100 hours/fortnight regardless of activity.
• 📅 Expect demand to build through H1 2026 as awareness and staffing adjust.

How it likely shifts dynamics:

• 🔼 Bolsters otherwise flat demand — most notably in outer-metro/regional, lower-participation catchments.
• 📆 Drives a part-time (Tue–Thu) skew, with mid-week peaks and more complex rostering.
• 💳 Eases out-of-pocket pressure for many families, but fee headroom remains tight where averages brush the cap.
• 👩‍🏫 Workforce pinch risk: uplift collides with educator shortages; onboarding and scheduling become execution tests.

💼 What it means for capital

🏗️ Developers

• 🔍 Tighten site screens: prove unmet demand (birth cohorts, waitlists, competitive pipeline).
• 🏫 Prefer school-adjacent / mixed-use sites with OSHC flexibility.
• ⚙️ Design for cap friction: opex-light builds (efficient HVAC/lighting, staff productivity).
• 📏 Right-size, don’t oversize.
  • Meaning: avoid giant centres in well-served suburbs. Aim for a moderate licence size with rooms that reconfigure as the local mix changes.
  • Guide: think ~70–100 places (data-dependent), operable walls/modular dividers, multi-age shared spaces, and OSHC-ready activity rooms with separate access.
  • Why: faster lease-up, better utilisation across age cohorts, smoother staffing to ratios, lower fixed costs when fees brush caps, and less exposure to micro-market saturation. 🔐
• ➕ With the 3-day guarantee: prioritise catchments with low current participation and strong school linkages; ensure layouts handle Tue–Thu peaks.

🧭 Operators

• ⏱️ Plan longer ramp-ups; keep fee discipline near caps.
• 🔗 Shift toward OSHC: deepen school partnerships; extend before/after-school capacity.
• 🧮 Max subsidy capture: systematise ACCS & Multi-Child screening at enrolment.
• 🗓️ For the 3-day guarantee: build 3-day rosters, balance Mon/Fri with programs and gentle pricing nudges, streamline onboarding for newly eligible families, and stage intakes if staffing is tight.

💰Investors

• 🛡️ Underwrite conservatively: low single-digit volume growth; stress-test −2 to −5 pts occupancy.
• 📑 Balanced leases: blend fixed uplifts with utilisation/turnover bands; CPI-only may lag costs near caps.
• 🎯 Tilt themes: school-co-located / OSHC-ready assets; focus on growth corridors; be selective in ACT/WA (fee headroom).
• 📈 Policy impact: model a measured occupancy tailwind from 2H 2026, strongest where participation is currently low and supply is not already saturated.

👀 What to watch

• 🔄 OSHC vs CBDC momentum into Dec-Q and through H1 2026 as the policy beds in.
• 🧩 Cap resets / policy refinements that could squeeze fee flexibility in high-cost markets.
• 🧑‍🏫 Workforce capacity: educator availability vs staged enrolment growth.
• 🗺️ Local saturation: approvals vs demographics in specific micro-markets.

Bottom line: 📌 The sector still rewards disciplined micro-market selection and cost excellence. The 3-day guarantee should nudge demand upward, especially in under-penetrated areas, but winners will be the teams that convert part-time intent into steady occupancy while managing staffing and mid-week peaks. ✅

🧸🏗️ Childcare deals wrap: September 2025

Why it matters: Social-infra stayed 🔥 in September.

Core childcare assets with long WALEs kept trading around the ~5% yield mark, with offshore money active.

📊 By the numbers

• $7.45m @ ~5.04% — Lota, QLD (Guardian).
• $7.9m @ 5.00% net — Wilton, NSW (Goodstart).
• 20 years — New lease in Box Hill’s Trio Tower (Cosmic Education Group).

✅ What’s new — September transactions

🏦 Sales

• Lota, QLD — Guardian (215 Whites Rd):$7.45m, ~5.04%. Off-market; 93 places; Stonebridge.
• Wilton, NSW — Goodstart (1 Jackson Ln):$7.9m, 5.00% net. Off-market; private buyer; Forte CRE.
• Orange, NSW — G8 (26–32 Albert St):Sold 24 Sep (auction). Renewed 14-yr net lease to 2034 + options. (Price undisclosed.)
• Mitchelton, QLD — Affinity (180 Osborne Rd):Sold 24 Sep (auction). Renewed 10-yr net lease. (Price undisclosed.)
• Ashwood, VIC — Ashburton Early Learning (465–467 Warrigal Rd):Sold to Cambodia-based investor; CBRE. (Price undisclosed.)

✍️ Leases

• Box Hill, VIC — Trio Tower (845–851 Whitehorse Rd):Cosmic Education Group on a 20-year commitment; CBRE H&SI.

👀 What we’re watching

• Post-auction disclosures for Orange & Mitchelton (pricing/yields).
• Yield floors: do 5% handles hold for metro infill, or tighten on blue-chip leases if rate-cut expectations firm?
• Pre-commit pipelines in mixed-use towers and transport-rich nodes.

🧵The bottom line

Quality, long-WALE childcare assets remain a defensive favourite: tight yields, active offshore capital, and leasing momentum in growth corridors.

📈 New DAs This Week

This week’s CREW round-up includes 21 childcare DAs across NSW (15), QLD (4) and VIC (2).

Activity is concentrated in Western Sydney (Liverpool, Blacktown), with a mix of new builds, fit-outs, and S4.56 modifications—several featuring basement parking.

Tap Info on any item to view the council page for plans, reports and timelines.

NSW

Blacktown City Council

🏗️ Doonside NSW 2767​
Demolition of existing structures and the construction of a two-storey child care centre for 76 children
📍 19 Graham Street Doonside NSW 2767
🏛️ Blacktown City Council | DA: CC-25-00955
🔗 Info​

🏗️ The Ponds NSW 2769​
Construction of a child care centre over basement car parking
📍 84 Amarco Circuit The Ponds NSW 2769
🏛️ Blacktown City Council | DA: CC-25-00960
🔗 Info​

Canterbury-Bankstown Council

🏗️ Greenacre NSW 2190​
Proposed child care centre for 104 places with 27 basement car spaces
📍 134 Boronia Road, Greenacre NSW 2190
🏛️ Canterbury-Bankstown Council | DA: DA-1076/2025
🔗 Info​

Liverpool City Council

🏗️ Hammondville NSW 2170​
Amalgamation of two land parcels; demolition; construction of a child care facility
📍 33 Stewart Avenue Hammondville NSW 2170
🏛️ Liverpool City Council | DA: RO-974/2025
🔗 Info​

🏡 Edmondson Park NSW 2174​
Alterations/additions to existing childcare centre
📍 Part Lot 1 Buchan Avenue Edmondson Park NSW 2174
🏛️ Liverpool City Council | DA: OC-1541/2025
🔗 Info​

🏡 Austral NSW 2179​
📍 216-218 Seventh Avenue Austral NSW 2179
🏛️ Liverpool City Council | DA: WZ-12/2025
🔗 Info​

The Hills Shire Council

🧱 Box Hill NSW 2765​
Section 4.56 modification to demolition & construction of a child care centre
📍 166 Old Pitt Town Road, Box Hill NSW 2765
🏛️ The Hills Shire Council | DA: 2286/2018/HA/C
🔗 Info​

QLD

Logan City Council

🏡 Woodridge QLD 4114​
Child Care Centre (fit-out) – Class 9b
📍 Booran Park 10A Pendrey Court Woodridge 4114, QLD
🏛️ Logan City Council | DA: BW/9795/2025
🔗 Info​

Sunshine Coast Regional Council

🏡 Bokarina QLD​
Child Care Centre
📍 27 Tailslide Cres Bokarina QLD
🏛️ Sunshine Coast Regional Council | DA: MCU25/0276
🔗 Info​

Toowoomba Regional Council

🏡 East Toowoomba QLD 4350​
Request to change approval – Child Care Centre & Function Facility
📍 2-6 Sonnenberg Street East Toowoomba QLD 4350
🏛️ Toowoomba Regional Council | DA: MCUI/2016/3777/A
🔗 Info​

VIC

Kingston City Council

🏡 Chelsea VIC​
Use and development of land for a child care centre
📍 25 Cross Road, Chelsea, VIC
🏛️ Kingston City Council | DA: KP-2018/925/A
🔗 Info​

Mornington Peninsula Shire Council

🏡 Mount Eliza VIC 3930​
Use and development of an early learning centre (associated with primary school)
📍 St Thomas More's School, 313 Canadian Bay Road, Mount Eliza VIC 3930
🏛️ Mornington Peninsula Shire Council | DA: P16/1355.02
🔗 Info​

​This companion sheet captures broader market activity (38 items) beyond formal DAs, useful for prioritising outreach:

• Mix: 25 New Developments · 6 New Service Approvals · 5 Mixed Use Developments · 2 Other
• Capacity: 2,026 places total (avg ~81 places)
• Status snapshot: 20 Possible · 8 Approved · 6 Complete · 3 Construction · 1 Early
• Demand (2km DSR): median 2.53, highlighting pockets of undersupply

How to use this list:
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• Prioritise Approved/Construction items where DSR > 2 for near-term openings.
• Treat high-DSR New Developments as early pipeline for site introductions and operator conversations.

At Optivest, we’re buying childcare sites (greenfield & infill). Reply “SITE” with address/pin + status. Introductions confidential and protected.

CREW is published by Jeff Gardner​
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