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📆 Fri, 26 SEPT 2025 | MLB | Showers, Windy 13°
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Good morning 👋
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A regulator steps in at Bright Days Herston as NSW’s pipeline shifts.

We’re tracking the outliers, a fresh childcare DA in Yandina, and what Arena’s 2025 signals for community-first investing.
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In today's edition...
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🏚 Bright Days, Herston: Enforced Closure​
​✈️ Outliers & Outperformance
🏙️ NSW Major Projects
🏗️ New DA Lodged: Yandina
📊 Insights from a $100B Playbook
🏗️ Arena REIT 2025: Annual Results
📢 Childcare DA Checklist
📈 New DAs and Service Approvals

🏚 Bright Days Herston — From Courtroom to Closure

🛑 The Backstory

• 2015–2016: Application lodged → refused by Council (oversupply, noise, character issues) → approved by the Planning & Environment Court with design tweaks and conditions.
• 2016–2023: Long approval/negotiation path; amended ICN levied in 2023 ($63,915).
• 2024: Centre built and opened as Bright Days Early Education.
• 2025: Service approval suspended (15 Aug–14 Nov) due to immediate child safety risks and repeated non-compliance with directions.

⚖️ Council vs Court

• Council: Argued oversupply, character, amenity impacts.
• Court: Emphasised zoning support for community uses, and strategic undersupply of childcare in inner Brisbane despite 6 existing centres.

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📊 The “Need” Debate Then vs Now

• Then (2016): Need was argued using population projections, planning guidelines, and media clippings about waitlists. No formal demand model was prepared.
• Now (2025): A Needs Assessment reveals oversupply in the 4-min residential catchment (0.81 ratio). On paper, the Court would have refused.
• But: Workplace demand (17,800 nearby workers, RBWH/QUT anchors) likely underpinned occupancy viability.

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CREW Insight: Raw ratios don’t tell the full story. Childcare demand isn’t just where families live, it’s also where they work.
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​📸 Pics & Clips

​Streetscape integration​ (pitched roof, acoustic barriers) imposed via Court.

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🚧 The Closure

• In Aug 2025, the regulator suspended Bright Days’ approval after finding immediate risk to children and repeated failure to comply with directions and an emergency order.
• The provider (Bright Days Herston Pty Ltd) is barred from operating until Nov 2025. Future operator/lease prospects uncertain.

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📌 What It Means for CREW Readers

• Developers: DA approvals via Court can add years of delay and higher compliance costs.
• Operators: History matters; leasing a contentious site means reputational + regulatory risk.
• Investors: Inner-city childcare remains high-value, but management failures can flip a prime site into a distressed opportunity.
• Policy Lens: Courts weigh “need” flexibly. Today’s data tools reveal nuance (residential vs workplace demand) that wasn’t available in 2016.

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🧭 CREW Take

Bright Days Herston is a case study in risk, resilience, and reality:

• Refused → approved via Court → built → opened → suspended.
• Need was contested then and still is today; the difference is we now have sharper data.
• For CREW readers, it’s a reminder that successful childcare real estate is about more than approvals; it’s about sustainable operation and trustworthy governance.

​Access info folder​

✈️ Outliers & Outperformance

Most people laughed at the idea of FedEx when Fred Smith pitched it.

Overnight delivery?

Impossible.

Yet Smith proved demand, built trust, and scaled what is now an $88B enterprise.

His story is a reminder that vision + grit, paired with relentless learning, can turn doubt into dominance.

This week’s featured listen on The Knowledge Project is the Outliers: Fred Smith episode — a masterclass in incentives, execution, and conviction.

For ambitious developers, scaling operators, and savvy investors, the parallels are striking: prove demand first, build reliability and trust, then scale into market gaps others overlook.

🎧 Listen here — and if you enjoy it, subscribe to the Knowledge Project for more conversations like this.

🏗️ NSW Major Projects

Childcare is increasingly at the centre of major development proposals across Sydney.

As urban renewal and masterplanned communities reshape precincts, proponents are embedding early education facilities as part of the essential social infrastructure mix.

For operators and investors, the key question is not just where new homes are being built, but whether childcare demand will be oversupplied, balanced, or underserved.

Below we examine three significant projects—Lidcombe, Concord West, and North Appin—with childcare market metrics, DA inclusions, and implications from a developer/operator perspective.

📍 29 Carter Street, Lidcombe NSW 2141

Project: 30-storey mixed-use tower with 411 apartments, supermarket, retail, medical, and a 100-place childcare centre.

Nearby DAs: Other approvals in the Carter Street Priority Precinct also include childcare facilities, highlighting planning pressure to meet community needs as density rises.

Market Metrics (1.5 km catchment):

• Facilities: 6 | Places: 240
• Children (0–5 yrs): 1,497
• Child-to-place ratio: 6.24 (vs NSW avg 2.77) → severe undersupply
• Average daily fees: ~$142–143

Developer POV: Embedding childcare adds value to a family-oriented mixed-use precinct and aligns with planning policy.

Operator POV: Even with multiple new approvals, demand will remain higher than supply. Strong occupancy is almost guaranteed. This is a high-confidence opportunity for operators to secure long-term stability.

📍 1 King Street, Concord West NSW 2138

Project: Rezoning of the largest under-utilised rail-adjacent site, masterplanned to include residential, retail, medical, and childcare facilities, with integration of the existing on-site centre.

Nearby DAs: Major mixed-use precincts in Rhodes and North Strathfield are also integrating childcare, reflecting a regional trend around rail nodes.

Market Metrics (1.5 km catchment):

• Facilities: 16 | Places: 1,229
• Children (0–5 yrs): 1,356
• Child-to-place ratio: 1.10 (balanced to oversupplied)
• Average daily fees: ~$163–167

Developer POV: Including childcare in the precinct builds social licence and strengthens family appeal in a high-density environment.

Operator POV: This is not an undersupply market. Instead, opportunity lies in premium positioning—specialist programs, bilingual models, or extended hours—suited to an affluent catchment already paying above-average fees.

📍 345 Appin Road, North Appin NSW 2560

Project: Masterplanned community with ~3,000 new homes, including a town centre with childcare, school, retail, and medical.

Nearby DAs: The Appin–Wilton growth corridor is attracting major housing proposals, with childcare expected to follow as essential infrastructure.

Market Metrics (1.5 km catchment):

• Facilities: 0 | Places: 0
• Children (0–5 yrs): 138 (baseline)
• Child-to-place ratio: N/A – no current centres
• Projected inflow: 700–800 new children under five as homes are delivered

Developer POV: Childcare is a cornerstone of community infrastructure in a greenfield estate. Early delivery supports family confidence and accelerates housing absorption.

Operator POV: A textbook first-mover opportunity. With no competition, early entrants will establish market dominance as families arrive.

📊 Childcare Development Snapshot

📈 Population Growth & Childcare Demand Projections

• Lidcombe: ~300–350 dwellings → ~55–70 new children. Adds ~20–25% more demand in an already undersupplied market.
• Concord West: ~800–1,200 dwellings → ~150–225 new children. Could shift the market from balanced into strain if new centres aren’t delivered.
• North Appin: 3,000 new homes → ~700–800 children. With zero baseline supply, multiple new centres (7–8 at 90 places each) will be needed.

✅ Key Takeaways for CREW Readers

• Lidcombe is a clear undersupply market where new centres are almost certain to thrive.
• Concord West is balanced now, but new density will tighten supply; operators should focus on premium, differentiated offerings.
• North Appin is a blank slate: no supply, massive future demand. The earliest operators to establish will secure market share before competitors arrive.

⚠️ Important Note

This analysis is a high-level first-cut look at childcare demand around these projects. We have not undertaken a full Needs Assessment, which would include:

• a scan of the future childcare pipeline (DAs and approvals in progress),
• deeper demographic and household projections, and
• consultation with local planning authorities.

Readers should treat these insights as an initial market screen, not a substitute for detailed Needs Assessment.

🏗️ New DA Lodged: 112-place Childcare Centre, Yandina

What’s new:

A Development Application has been lodged with Sunshine Coast Council for a new 112-place childcare centre at 3–7 Old Gympie Rd, Yandina in the Sunshine Coast hinterland.

The proposal:

• 📍 Site: Lot 7 RP173679, 12,140m² parcel in the Local Centre Zone.
• 👷 Applicant: Griffco Holdings Pty Ltd (Planning Consultant: Project Urban).
• 🏢 Centre: ~811m² gross floor area (760m² ground, 51m² first floor).
• 👶 Capacity: 112 children, 19 staff.
• 🪴 Outdoor play: ~798m², split across northern (street frontage) and southern (screened) areas.
• 🚗 Parking: 30 car spaces (19 staff, 11 visitor incl. 2 PWD) + 8 bicycle + 8 motorcycle bays.
• 🚙 Access: New driveway off Old Gympie Rd, a collector road.
• 🗂️ Associated works: Roadworks, landscaping, stormwater, earthworks, vegetation clearing, access and carparking.

Design & layout:

• Seven activity rooms across ground and first floor.
• Entry via foyer/reception with admin and staff areas upstairs.
• Outdoor play yards orientated north and south to balance solar access and acoustic impacts.
• Built form sited in the north-western corner of the lot, leaving the balance for landscaping and circulation.

Technical reports lodged:

• 📑 Development Assessment Report & Planning Scheme Code Assessment.
• 🚦 Traffic Impact Assessment.
• 🔊 Acoustic Report (with 2.0–2.4m fencing recommended).
• 🛠️ Civil Engineering & Earthworks Report.
• 🌧️ Stormwater Management Plan (MUSIC modelling, lawful discharge).
• 🌳 Landscape Plans (including advanced screening species + carbon-neutral concrete).
• 📄 Owner’s consent, DA Form 1, eDevelopment lodgement forms.

Planning context:

• Zone: Local Centre, within Yandina Local Plan Area.
• Overlays: Acid sulfate soils, biodiversity waterways, airport environs, landslide hazard, building height.
• Assessment type: Code assessable (not impact).
• Value of associated OPW works: ~$300,000.

Why it matters:

• 📍 Positioned directly beside the expanding Yandina Shopping Centre → good visibility and co-location benefits.
• ⚖️ Parking provision (30 vs 35 required) may be debated, with applicant arguing Code ratio is excessive for childcare.
• 🔎 Proposal supersedes an earlier approval for 98 places on the site, offering a net uplift of +14 places.

👉 Next step: Sunshine Coast Council will assess the application (Ref: MCU25/0268 & OPW25/0398).

📊 Childcare Lessons from a $100B Playbook

💡 The Big Idea

​Jeff Horing of Insight Partners scaled a $100B fund by mastering four disciplines: see, pick, win, make work.

The same principles can supercharge childcare real estate.

🚧 Developers: Build a sourcing machine

Insight’s edge: 60+ analysts systematically calling companies daily.

• In childcare, the winners are scanning DAs, mapping undersupply, and locking sites early.
• Don’t wait for brokers; systematise your pipeline.

🏫 Operators: Focus on retention

Horing: gross retention is the #1 predictor of long-term value.

• For childcare, that’s occupancy resilience.
• First movers can set fees and build sticky enrolments, but only if service quality and convenience hold.

💸 Investors: Back quality, not cheapness

Insight’s lesson: big wins come from quality, not bargains.

• In childcare, “cheap sites” in oversupplied markets often strands capital.
• Value comes from undersupply + strong operators + defensibility, even at higher land costs.

📌 CREW takeaway

Systematize sourcing. Measure stickiness. Back quality.

Childcare real estate, like software, rewards discipline and scale over opportunism.

🤝 Optivest Alliance

We’re running this exact playbook.

The Optivest Alliance is a network of developers, operators, and investors collaborating to:

• See more market gaps first
• Pick only undersupplied locations
• Win tenants and approvals before competition
• Make work projects that deliver long-term value

✅ Alliance members also get the backing of Optivest’s analyst team — scanning markets daily, surfacing verified gaps, and helping secure sites with data-driven confidence.

👉 Email Jeff Gardner to explore joining the Alliance - jeff.gardner@optivest.com.au​

🏗️ Arena REIT 2025: Building Better Communities

Why it matters: Arena REIT (ASX: ARF) just released its Annual Report, Sustainability Statement + Corporate Governance update. For developers, investors, and operators in childcare + social infrastructure, this sets the tone.

💰 Strong financials

• Assets: $1.86B (+15%)
• Profit: $81M net profit (+42%)
• Distributions: 18.25c per security (+4.9%)
• WALE: 18.4 years, 100% occupancy

👉 One of the longest lease profiles in the REIT sector = reliable income visibility.

🏫 Childcare still core

• 271 early learning centres (ELCs) = 91% of portfolio
• 29 new ELC projects in pipeline ($227M, 6% yield)
• Rent reviews in FY25: +3.5% average, with market reviews up +6.8%

👉 Government reforms on affordability + access are tailwinds for participation and demand.

🏥 Healthcare expansion

• 10 healthcare assets (9% of portfolio)
• New: Bendigo Health worker accommodation on 19-yr lease

👉 Expect Arena to keep adding community health assets alongside childcare.

🌱 Sustainability wins

• Zero scope 1 + 2 emissions
• Solar on 92% of portfolio
• 39% emissions reduction vs 2021 baseline
• FTSE Russell ESG governance score: 5/5

👉 Arena’s “Partnerships for Change” model = operators benefit from cost-efficient, sustainable facilities.

👥 Governance + leadership

• Maintains 40:40:20 gender diversity model
• CEO transition: Rob de Vos steps down Nov 2025; Justin Bailey (ex-CIO) to succeed
• Board refreshed with Adam Tindall joining, Helen Thornton chairing audit

📌 CREW Takeaways

• Developers: Pipeline = partnership opportunities for new ELC builds.
• Investors: Attractive combo of yield + growth. FY26 DPS guidance: 19.25c (+5.5%).
• Operators: Strong ESG focus + long leases, but expect tighter compliance on safety + quality.

Bottom line: Arena is doubling down on sustainable, long-lease childcare + healthcare — delivering stable returns for investors, growth opportunities for developers, and modern, safe facilities for operators.

📢 Childcare DA Checklist

Why it matters: Childcare developments are complex. Each site comes with planning, traffic, noise, stormwater, landscape, and legal hurdles. Missing one can cost months and tens of thousands.

What’s new: We’ve created a Childcare DA Assessment Checklist. It's a practical tool to help developers, investors, and operators quickly stress-test sites before committing serious dollars.

What it covers:

• Planning & code compliance ✔️
• Traffic, parking, access ⚠️
• Noise & acoustic impacts 🔊
• Civil, stormwater, flood, earthworks 🌧️
• Landscape & outdoor play 🌳
• Admin & lodgement essentials 📝

How to use it:

• Print or keep on tablet.
• Tick ✔️ low risk / ⚠️ needs mitigation / ❌ major risk.
• Capture notes + mitigation actions across all disciplines.

👉 Download the Childcare DA Checklist​

📈 New DAs This Week
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​🏗️ New Childcare Development Applications

• Liverpool City Council – 216-218 Seventh Avenue Austral NSW 2179 (75)
  Construction of a 75-place childcare centre with parking and landscaping
  DA Ref: WZ-12/2025 View DA​
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• Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional Council – 83 Foxlow Street Captains Flat NSW 2623 (Capacity not stated)
  ​RETURNED Change of use: Establishment of Family Day Care
  DA Ref: DA.2025.0444 View DA​
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• Goulburn Mulwaree Council – 170 Lansdowne Street Goulburn NSW 2580 (76)
  Proposed 76-Place Centre Based Child Care Facility
  DA Ref: DA/0107/2526 View DA​
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• Cumberland Council – 0 Palmer Street, Guildford West NSW 2161 (Capacity not stated)
  Construction of a new Preschool Facility
  DA Ref: CDC2025/0667 View DA​
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• Campaspe Shire Council – 8759 Northern Highway Echuca VIC 3564 (Capacity not stated)
  Use and development of a childcare centre (Full details in planning report)
  DA Ref: PLN197/2025 View DA​

CREW is published by Jeff Gardner​
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