📢 Market Snapshot - Mudjimba, Sunshine Coast Q



📆 Fri, 12 SEPT 2025 | Sunshine Coast | Fine 14°

🖐️ Good morning

Checking in from the Sunshine Coast. Short break, short read. High-signal only.

This issue, at a glance:

  • Market Snapshot: Mudjimba, Sunshine Coast QLD — clean read on demand, pipeline, and site cues.
  • Operator Heat: Bonbeach VIC lease draws rapid interest, useful for rent comps and appetite checks.
  • SA Momentum: The next ELC wave is forming with fresh applications and sites in play.
  • Data Drop: New DAs, possible new ELCs, and Service Approvals to guide your next move.

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Get the signals you need.


📢 Market Snapshot - Mudjimba, Sunshine Coast Q

New DA: A 96-place, two-storey childcare has been lodged for 687–689 David Low Way, Mudjimba (MCU25/0248).


Zoning: Local Centre, code-assessable (no public notification).

Design: 30 car bays, LILO access to David Low Way, full technical report suite supported planning application (TIA, acoustics, flood, civil, OWMP, landscape).

Why it matters

👉 The DA addresses an undersupplied catchment with ~237 additional places needed. This project only partly closes this gap.

Market Catchment

The Main Service Area as defined is a self-contained coastal strip with ~25k residents (2024) and spans an area running north–south along the coastline from Mount Coolum in the north through to Marcoola, Pacific Paradise, and Mudjimba to the south.

The Numbers

Population: 25,093 (2024), growing 1.2% pa → 26,361 by 2036.

0–5s: 1,450 children (4.5% of pop; below QLD avg 5.6%).

Existing supply: 3 centres, 235 places (all >13 yrs old, Meeting NQS).

Fees: $109–$149/day.

DSR: 1.89 → undersupplied (modelled need 444 vs 235 places).

Vacancies: None visible on Toddle/Storypark → centres likely full.

Pipeline: No competitor DAs or large estates.

DSR Explained

The Demand–Supply Ratio (DSR) compares the modelled childcare place requirement with existing supply:

Step 1 – Population base: 1,450 children aged 0–5 (2024).
Step 2 – Participation rate: 1,450 × 45% = 653 attending children.
Step 3 – Average days/week: 653 × (3.4 ÷ 5) = 444 place‑equivalents required.
Step 4 – Compare with supply: Existing 3 centres provide 235 licensed places.
Step 5 – Calculate DSR: 444 ÷ 235 = 1.89.

➡️ This means demand is almost double supply, leaving a deficit of ~209 places.

Any DSR > 1.0 signals undersupply; from a developer/operator perspective, this is favourable.

Traffic Lights Weighted Scoring

Location Commentary

687 David Low Way (721 m²): Held by local investors for the last 8 years.
689 David Low Way (721 m²): Held by North Sydney–based investors for the last 20 years.

Together these adjoining lots provide a 1,443 m² footprint fronting David Low Way.

The site sits within walking distance of Pacific Paradise State School, close to local retail and services (Marcoola and Pacific Paradise centres), and in proximity to the Sunshine Coast Airport and surrounding employment generators.

The David Low Way arterial provides strong north–south connectivity through the coastal strip, with bus routes 620/622 stopping within ~30 m, supporting both parent access and staff transport.

Developer / Applicant

The DA applicant and operator is Smartland Boutique Early Learning.

The developer is Jay Luckie’s LRP Developments, with construction to be delivered by Prekaro Projects.

Smartland operates centres at Maroochydore, Minyama, Mountain Creek and Sippy Downs on the Sunshine Coast, as well as Coffs Harbour, Ripley and two in Port Macquarie.

Consultant Team

The consultant group was coordinated by Adam Robson, Co-founder and Director of Prekaro Projects, and included:

* Murray Bell Planning
* Verve Design Group
* Pitch Black Group
* Northrop Consulting Engineers
* Intrax Consulting Group
* Andrew Gold Landscape Architecture
* Modus Transport and Traffic Engineering
* ViridAU

CREW View: This is a well-positioned DA in a structurally undersupplied market.

Likely to be a strong performer when realised.


🏝️ VIC: Bonbeach 99-place lease draws rapid operator interest

Architect-designed Bayside centre in a premium fee band.

The gist

  • 🏗️ 99 approved places, architect-designed, completion Q4 2026
  • 💸 Surrounding daily fees ~ $170+
  • 🚆 <200 m to Bonbeach Train Station, strong nearby schools

Deal status

  • 📫 Multiple enquiries and four offers inside four days
  • 🤝 Under offer with a reputable multi-site operator
  • 📣 Listed and marketed by The Leasing Agency (Ali Usman).

Why it matters

  • 🌊 Bayside coastal supply is tight, ratio signals undersupply pressure
  • 🛤️ Rail adjacency and premium fees support top-quartile rents and bankability

By the numbers

  • 99 places
  • <200 m to rail
  • Q4 2026 target
  • ~$170+ daily rate band

CREW take
Right micro: rail, schools, premium fee profile.


⚡ SA ELC Playbook — Where To Move n=Now

GARP (Greater Adelaide Regional Plan)

  • In force: 17 Mar 2025
  • Direction: growth to the northern arc (Playford, Gawler, Light, Barossa, Adelaide Plains) + Murray Bridge
  • Targets: ~315k homes over ~30 years
  • Supply rule: maintain ~15 years zoned land, with ≥5 years development-ready

🎯 Why this matters for ELCs

  • Sequenced services: Rezoning aligned with water, sewer, roads, open space → fewer “stranded” sites
  • Constraints = scarcity: EFPA, flood and rural buffers funnel uplift to serviced fronts
  • Timing premium: Pre-rezoning / pre-lease positions historically capture value and first-choice corners

📍 Core focus: Northern Growth Arc

  • LGAs: Playford • Gawler • Light • Barossa • Adelaide Plains • Murray Bridge
  • Hubs to track: Angle Vale • Smithfield • Gawler/Evanston • Roseworthy • Two Wells • Virginia • Murray Bridge
  • Early movers (evidence):
    • Angle Vale: Edge Early Learning; Children First/Imagine
    • Smithfield: Imagine Childcare (long-WALE investment sale)
    • Two Wells Town Centre: childcare included in Stage 1 program
    • Roseworthy / St Yves: town-centre program includes childcare
    • Murray Bridge: Newbridge (~120 places) lodged; Mannum Rd progressing
    • Edinburgh North: 119-place childcare removed at approval (industrial adjacency); re-work flagged

➕ Additional Priority Investigation Areas

  • Metric key: Ratio = 0–5-year-olds per licensed place within 2 km (higher = tighter supply)
  • Fulham (West corridors)
    • Ratio: 9.48
    • 0–4 population (2 km): 1,088
    • Primary schools (3 km): 10
  • Klemzig (Inner NE spine)
    • Ratio: 3.67
    • 0–4 population (2 km): 2,323
    • Primary schools (3 km): 13
  • St Marys (South/SW feeders)
    • Ratio: 4.41
    • 0–4 population (2 km): 1,566
    • Primary schools (3 km): 12
  • Also strong:
    • West: Fulham Gardens, Kidman Park, Allenby Gardens, Welland
    • Inner NE: Hillcrest, Felixstow, Glynde, Marden, Magill, Woodforde
    • South/SW: Cumberland Park, Glandore, Sheidow Park, Hallett Cove
    • NE fringe: Tea Tree Gully

🧾 Bottom line

  • GARP sets the path: northern arc + Murray Bridge, ~315k homes, 15-year zoned with ≥5-year development-ready
  • Constraints concentrate growth on serviced fronts
  • Momentum is visible in Angle Vale/Smithfield, with childcare embedded at Two Wells/Roseworthy, and centres lodged/advancing in Murray Bridge
  • PIA pressure points: tight ratios in Fulham (9.48), Klemzig (3.67), St Marys (4.41) alongside dense school catchments

🔗 Further resources


📈 New DAs, Possible New ELCs, Service Approvals

This week’s pipeline snapshot: fresh applications, likely new builds, and official approvals that turn plans into places. Quick to scan, built for action.

Why it matters:

  • Early read on near-term supply and operator appetite.
  • Flags hotspots for site hunting and rent comps.
  • Helps investors and lenders gauge momentum and risk.

How to use it:

  • Sort by date to see the newest signals first.
  • Cross-check Service Approvals against your rollout map.
  • Prioritise DAs near strong primary school catchments.

📊 Download the data


🚀
CREW is published by Jeff Gardner
jeff.gardner@childcarerealestateweekly.com
See you next Friday @ 9am AEST


Childcare Real Estate Weekly (CREW)

For Childcare Centre developers, operators, investors, financiers, and advisors

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