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📆 Fri, 8 Aug 2025 | BNE | Showers 14°
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​🧭 In today's CREW​
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🎯 Hilary Knights - The Quiet Deal-Maker
🟢 Success for Jarra: First Asset Settled
🏗️ NSW: Kings Forest: Stockland Buys
🌟 SEQ: Narangba Heights DA
🛑 Pause or Play; What’s Next?
🔔 Driving The News
🆕 New DAs This Week

🎯 Hilary Knights — The Quiet Deal-Maker QLD Sellers Trust

🧭 Why she matters

​Hilary Knights is the Queensland Director of Childcare Concepts with 20+ years in the ECEC sector.

She offers discreet, high-value ELC brokerage and is widely regarded the go-to advisor for operators who prize confidentiality and buyers hunting quality assets.

🛣️ Track record

Selling an ELC involves a lengthy, complex process with many moving parts; marketing, compliance, approvals, and financial checks.

The process demands absolute discretion.

That's because any drop in enrolment of more than 5% during the contract period is treated as a material change that can trigger contract terminations.

So confidentiality is critical to protect staff morale and maintain occupancy.​
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Hilary navigates this risk by proactively managing the contract and leasing assignment phase with specialist solicitors, 60-day provider approval process, and running deep-dive due diligence on financials, service quality, and DA pipeline to head off surprises.

The result?

Settlements in about five months from list to close, on average.

Lengthy, but fully risk-managed from start to finish.

Her owner-first protocol drives loyalty: over 80% of clients return for her speed and discretion.

In the last 12 months, she has brokered premium centres averaging $60k per licensed place, demonstrating her knack for maximising leasehold goodwill.

💰 Pricing pulse (her latest intel)

• Rent per place: high-$2–3 k → mid-$4 k+
• Rent-to-revenue: 12–18 % is now standard; for new builds, developers often offer ramp-up rent-free periods as a lease incentive to soften early cash drag.
• Premium goodwill: proven centres clear high-five-figure leasehold goodwill (~$50–80 k/place); trophy assets in prime locations can tick into six-figure territory.
• Turnaround sites: typically below 50% occupancy, these trade as lease assignments only. Buyers pay a nominal assignment fee (often in the low thousands), then fund all upgrades including capex, marketing, staff incentives and consumables to rebuild occupancy and value post-sale.

🛠️ Knights’ value-add playbook

• Talent magnets: Remote sites add on-site housing or run FIFO rosters to lock in educators.
• Day-1 uplift: Simple bathroom & staff-room makeovers drive quick enrolment & retention gains.
• Deal discipline: Data room on day 1, two-week consumables clause, weekly DD calls—no surprises, no excuses.

📈 Market radar

• Stress high: Knights has never seen operators under so much pressure; typically resilient, many are feeling the strain on rent, staffing, compliance, competition, and falling occupancy.
• Strategic pauses: Projects are being paused (not canned) as rent, wages & compliance pressures converge.
• Turnaround opportunity: Centres needing turnaround present a chance for well-capitalised buyers to partner on value-add transitions. Some are pre-assembling dedicated area-manager teams.
• Operator playbook split: Some large operators have paused M&A and greenfield development to focus on internal stability and await regulatory clarity; others are forging ahead full-steam as a counter move to mainstream sentiment.
• Capital shift: NSW & VIC groups are expanding into QLD & TAS chasing cheaper land & licences.

🔎 Leasehold Goodwill explained

• Goodwill vs asset: You pay for an operating business—occupancy, staff, community trust on top of fit-out.
• Five-figure norm: $50–80 k/place for 90 %+ occupancy centres.
• Six-figure outliers: > $100 k/place only for “unicorn” sites (prime catchment, spotless track record).
• Turnaround caveat: < 50% occupancy centres trade as lease assignments only; expect low or zero upfront goodwill.
• Post-sale uplift funding: Buyers of lease-assignment deals pay a nominal upfront fee for the lease, then invest in:
  • CapEx improvements (fresh paint, upgraded bathrooms, new playgrounds)
  • Marketing spend to drive enrolments and community awareness
  • Staff recruitment & incentives to lift service quality
  • Operational ramp-up costs (consumables, onboarding, rent-free incentives)

Bottom line:

Sharply rising occupancy costs (rent and outgoings) + talent wars = stressed sellers vs. cashed-up consolidators.

Apply Knights’ checklist, lock in goodwill, and keep her on speed-dial when discretion, speed and full-price outcomes matter most.

📞 0407 572 725
📧 hilary@childcareconcepts.com.au

Disclosure: CREW receives no referral fees or other benefit from Childcare Concepts or Hilary Knights.

🟢 Success for Jarra: First Asset Settled, Trust Now Open

​Jarra Childcare Investment Trust has officially launched with the settlement of its inaugural asset, a 4,000 m² development site in Success, WA, directly opposite Cockburn Gateway Shopping Centre.

📍 Location: Lot 810 Wentworth Parade, Success WA
🏗️ Development: 96-place purpose-built childcare centre
🤝 Pre-leased to: Early Learning Collective (15-year term)
📈 Model: Co-investment in both the real estate and the childcare business
💰 Sale price: $3.05 million ($762/m²)

Why it matters

🛡️ Dual play: Jarra’s strategy combines long-WALE childcare property with equity in the operating business. It's an inflation-hedged, socially aligned growth model.
👶 Undersupply edge: The site services a high-growth catchment with a known shortage of licensed places.
📊 Investor upside: Long-term income from rent + potential capital uplift from business value.
📌 Anchor location: Directly adjacent to major retail, employment, and transport infrastructure in Perth’s southern corridor.

What they said

Behind the deal

🔁 The deal reflects Jarra’s broader fund strategy:

• 🧠 Government-backed demand
• 🏢 Essential service tenants
• 📉 Downside resilience
• 📈 Dual-growth upside via operations and real estate

Early Learning Collective, the centre’s tenant, is part-owned by the Trust, ensuring alignment and occupancy from day one.

What’s next?

👀 Construction is expected to commence shortly, with further site announcements to follow.

The Trust is targeting a national portfolio of high-quality childcare assets.

📩 For investment information, contact Lauren Bell at lauren@jarra.com.au​

CREW Take
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This is a textbook example of the emerging “own & operate” hybrid model gaining traction among sophisticated childcare funds.

For developers, it shows the strength of demand for quality, permit-ready sites in growth corridors.

For operators, it flags Early Learning Collective’s national rollout.

For investors?

The first of many “done deals” worth watching.

Disclosure: CREW receives no referral fees or other benefit from Jarra, their associates, or affiliates.

🏗️ Kings Forest: $620M Stockland Super Site

Stockland has completed the $620 million acquisition of the 869-hectare Kings Forest estate near Kingscliff from Bob Ell’s Leda Holdings — one of Australia’s largest residential land deals.

📊 Snapshot

• Site area: 869 hectares
• Total price: $620 million (staged over multiple years)
• Approved lots: ~4,500
• Future residents: ~11,000
• Stage 1 launch: 38 lots sold out in 12 hours (late 2024)
• Total sold to date: ~150 lots
• Expected yield: ~2.5–3.0 persons per household

📍 Location & context

• Positioned on Tweed Coast Road, just south of Kingscliff
• 115 km south of Brisbane, 655 km north of Sydney
• Within the broader Gold Coast catchment
• Masterplan includes schools, childcare, parks, retail, sporting fields, and 70,000+ native trees

👪 Family-Focused Community

Kings Forest is not a retirement village play.

It’s designed to reshape regional demographics with infrastructure and housing targeted at young families, including:

• New primary school sites identified in the concept plan
• Land designated for early learning centres, parks & play areas
• Walkable access to future town centre retail and services
• Stockland’s track record in family-friendly masterplans (e.g. Aura, Cloverton, Springfield Rise)

📈 Projected child cohort: ~900 children aged 0–4 at maturity, based on dwelling yield and participation benchmarks.

📚 School Provision & Education Demand

The NSW Department of Education has identified Kings Forest as a future school site in regional planning.

The Leda masterplan and Planning Portal documents include provision for at least one government primary school. No DA for independent schools has yet been lodged.

🎓 Implication: Long-term demand for OSHC, prep programs, and private education likely to grow as families settle.

🚗 Commuter Dynamics

Kings Forest sits within commuting range of the Gold Coast, with direct arterial access via Tweed Coast Road and the Pacific Motorway.

Travel times:

• ~15 min to Kingscliff
• ~25 min to Coolangatta Airport
• ~35 min to Robina Town Centre

🛣️ Road staging and local connector upgrades will shape early take-up and childcare travel behaviour.

🏗 Childcare Competitor Pipeline

There are no known Development Applications or Construction Certificates lodged for childcare centres within Kings Forest as of August 2025.

📍 Nearest centres:

• Casuarina (Goodstart, Sparkletots)
• Kingscliff (Milestones Early Learning)
• Pottsville and Bogangar to the south
• None within walking distance of Stage 1–2 housing

🎯 This represents a true greenfield ECEC opportunity.

🏘️ Housing Typology & Demand Drivers

The Kings Forest masterplan includes:

• Predominantly detached dwellings (low–medium density)
• Some future medium-density areas near town centre precinct
• Focus on walkable neighbourhood design

Family-style housing typology + detached lots = increased demand for:

• Full-day care
• Local catchment OSHC
• Community-integrated childcare services

📊 Buyer Profile: Early Sales Data

Sales agents report:

• Strong interest from young families relocating from SEQ
• Majority of purchasers are owner-occupiers, not investors
• Lot sizes: typically 400–600m²
• High uptake from dual-income couples seeking affordable new builds

🎯 ECEC operators should note: child-forming households are driving initial uptake.

🏛 Planning & Political Environment

• Kings Forest is a State Significant Site, with planning led by the NSW Department of Planning
• Leda’s Development Code (modified multiple times) guides land use, infrastructure, and sequencing
• No recent community-led objections recorded since Stage 1 construction began
• Tweed Shire Council supports urban expansion within the designated footprint

⚠️ Note: Nearby Cobaki and coastal infill projects have faced resistance, but Kings Forest has cleared major hurdles and is shovel-ready.

🔍 CREW Takeaway

Kings Forest is now active — not speculative.

✅ Major land transaction complete
✅ Stage 1 delivered
✅ Demographic shift underway

This is the largest family-oriented masterplan between Ballina and Beenleigh and a rare chance to shape early learning supply from the ground up.

🌟 SEQ: Narangba Heights DA Unveils 120-Place ELC & Retail Opportunity

📍 Location & context

• Site: 996 Oakey Flat Road, Narangba Q 4504 - Narangba Heights Shopping Centre (Stage 2 DA/2023/2186)
• Masterplan scale: Oxmar’s 450 ha estate → 2,000+ homes over 10 yrs; Narangba SA2 to add ~19,000 residents by 2041
• Nearby pipeline: Stockland’s Kinma Valley adds ~2,500 homes ~2 km north (Hazelwood sold out; Delaney nearly sold)
• Infrastructure boost: $10.1 M Federal grant secured to upgrade the Young Rd / Oakey Flat Rd / Sovereign Dr intersection reducing congestion, improving active‐travel safety and linking Narangba Heights to wider catchments. Construction late 2025–2026.

🏗 Stage 1 overview

• Scope: Coles (3,946 m²), service station, ~15 shops, ~300 car parks [DA Plan set]
• Developer: Oxmar Properties (master‐developer of Narangba Heights)
• Status: Bulk earthworks complete; construction yet to commence, due to start within 6 months of approval and finish in 12–15 months

🚸 Stage 2 proposal

• ALDI supermarket, ~15 specialty shops, food & drink outlet, tyre & auto facility, two mixed-use buildings
• 120-place childcare centre (Building 2.03, 991 m²) fronting Sovereign Drive
• Access & design: Two new crossovers with dedicated drop-off/pick-up bay and 38 parking bays; continuous 2 m footpath to residential walkways

📸 📽️ Pics & Clips​

👶 ECEC Operator considerations

• No operator announced for Narangba Heights yet
• Competitive risk: Potential in-estate ELC in Kinma Valley will vie in part for the same catchment families if it eventuates on this potential site (not yet confirmed).

⚡ Why it matters

• Demand tailwinds: Combined masterplans—2,000+ homes at Narangba Heights plus ~2,500 at Kinma Valley—mean thousands of new local families over the next decade
• Policy fit: Local Centre zoning explicitly envisages “community activities such as childcare” alongside retail/community uses
• First-mover edge: Amber-level undersupply and limited new centres mean prime sites will be snapped up fast

📝 CREW Needs Assessment

1. Catchment demand: ~1,172 children aged 0–4
2. FTE demand: ~412 places (1,172 × 55% participation × 3.2/5 days)
3. Existing supply: 271 LDC places (3 centres)
4. Pipeline supply: 120 places (proposed ELC at Narangba Heights SC)
5. Total future supply: 391 places
6. Net undersupply: 21 places (412 – 391)

Catchment Overview

Primary Schools

Narangba Valley SS: 1,088 enrolments (2023); stable feeder (~1.5 km)
​Jinibara SS: 661 enrolments (2023); declining trend (~1.2 km)

Demand Modelling

0–4 cohort: 17,127 × 6.84% = 1,172 children
Participation: 55%
Attendance: 3.2 days/week (QLD avg)
FTE demand: 1,172 × 0.55 × (3.2/5) ≈ 412 places

Supply Analysis

Existing centres (3):

• Sesame Lane Narangba – Banyan St: 100 places; vacancies opaque
• Sesame Lane Narangba – Cottontree Dr: 85 places; fully subscribed
• Goodstart Early Learning Narangba: 86 places; fully subscribed

Pipeline centre: 120­ place ELC (DA/2023/2186)
​Total future supply: 391 places

Demand vs Supply Ratio

DSR: 1,467 children / 271 places ≈ 5.41 : 1
Developer POV: Strong undersupply until pipeline delivered; post-delivery nearly balanced (412 : 391 ≈ 1.05 : 1)

Traffic-Light Scoring

Estate-Level Pipeline Context

Estimated Additional Supply Required

• 88% occupancy target: 412 ÷ 0.88 ≈ 468 places
• Committed supply: 391 places
• Gap: 468 – 391 ≈ 77 places

Methodology & Weighting

• Participation: 55% of 0–4 cohort
• Attendance: 3.2 days/week
• Traffic lights: Developer POV (Green = high; Amber = moderate)
• Pipeline risk: Proximity & approval stage

⚡ Bottom line

With an amber-level needs score and thousands of new homes coming online, this site (if DA is approved) offers operators a childcare leasing opportunity within what should be a strong dual supermarket (Coles and Aldi) neighbourhood centre offer.
​
🔑 Leasing Enquiries
​​
👤 Phil Murphy
📞 07 3263 4977
✉️ office@oxmarproperties.com.au

💡 Making your next childcare move?

Optivest backs developers, operators & investors with:

✔️ Gap intel to spot high-demand zones
✔️ Network planning to guide growth
✔️ Site acquisition to lock in the best locations

👋 Get in touch:
📞 0402 359 305
📧 jeff.gardner@optivest.com.au
🌐 Learn more: optivest.com.au​

🛑 Pause or Play? What’s Next for Australia’s Childcare Sector

🚨 Big Picture

Recent reforms in Australia’s childcare sector aren’t just noise, they’re resetting the rules.

From funding enforcement to workforce disruption, the sector is shifting beneath our feet.

Operators, developers, and investors must now rethink risk, restructure growth models, and realign strategy.

🧱 What’s Changing?

⚖️ 1. Compliance Risk is Now Capital Risk

• Under new legislation, the Fed. Gov. can withhold or cancel CCS funding after a single serious breach of safety law.
• From 1 September 2025, all abuse-related incidents must be reported within 24 hours, down from seven days.
• Inspections are being stepped up and public scrutiny has dramatically intensified.

💡 Implication: Compliance capability is now a gating factor for capital deployment.

🤝 2. Consolidation Likely to Accelerate

• Institutional and private capital groups are actively acquiring underperforming or at-risk centres with short leases or poor compliance history. They will be recapitalised, reset, and rejuvenated.
• Some funds, such as the Jarra Childcare Trust, are executing buy-refurb-rebrand strategies.

💡 Implication: Brownfield plays may rival greenfield builds for return and speed.

💸 3. Funding Flows, But With Clearer Conditions

• From January 2026, the “three-day guarantee” gives all families access to a minimum 3 days of subsidised care, regardless of work status.
• This is expected to increase demand in outer-metro and regional areas previously considered unviable.
• Public investment now prioritises access and quality, especially in low-participation zones.

💡 Implication: Location and service mix must align with CCS access and long-term catchment demand.

🏗️ 4. Workforce Constraints Limit Real Capacity

• Despite a federal commitment of $3.6 billion toward ECEC wages, chronic workforce shortages remain.
• Some centres are still capping enrolments or temporarily closing rooms due to lack of qualified staff.
• Licensed capacity no longer guarantees operational throughput.

💡 Implication: Investors must model to realisable throughput, not licensed capacity.

📉 5. Valuations and Lease Structures Under Pressure

• Secondary assets and non-premium operators are beginning to see cap rate softening, while top-tier operators remain stable, keenly sought-after, and highly-valued.
• Some private developers and lenders are exploring performance-linked lease structures or shorter terms, especially in emerging markets. No point having a long term lease anchored to a breach-riddled operator.

💡 Implication: Strong operator due diligence is becoming as important as lease length.

📊 What to Watch

🔚 Bottom Line

This isn’t just a policy cycle. It’s a foundational reset.

Government has changed the rules with more to follow.
Parents are demanding transparency, accountability, justice.
And capital is recalibrating around quality, resilience, and regulatory fit.

➡️ The winners in this next cycle will be compliant, workforce-ready, and strategically placed.

🔔 Driving the news

The Early Childhood Education & Care (Strengthening Regulation of Early Education) Bill 2025 received Royal Assent on 31 Jul 2025.

The full Bill PDF and Revised Explanatory Memorandum are now published (download links below).

⚡ Why it matters

• 💰 Money lever: CCS = ~70% of a centre’s revenue; new law lets Canberra suspend funding on one breach.
• ✋ One-strike rule: Single safety breach can trigger CCS suspension and public sanction.
• 🚧 Expanded powers: Regulators get unannounced entry rights for safety checks.
• 🌐 Transparency shift: National breach register in development; sector bracing for new public compliance disclosures.

🔍 Ramifications by stakeholder

• 🏗️ Developers: Lenders may demand spotless compliance histories; cap-rates on “risky” tenancies may rise.
• 👩‍💼 Operators: Invest in QA, training & incident-reporting systems now or risk revenue cuts.
• 💼 Investors/Financiers: Embed live-breach-feed covenant tests in loan docs.
• 📈 Advisors/Brokers: Upgrade due-diligence: add compliance-history scans to all IMs and valuation packs.

What to watch next 👀

1. 🤝 COAG talks on WWCC interoperability & CCTV mandates.
2. 📅 Senate committee submissions, likely open soon with a short window.
3. 🔄 Implementation guidelines from Services Australia (timing for register roll-out).

📎 Download links

• ​Bill Home Page & Downloads​
• ​Explanatory Memorandum (PDF/Word)​
• ​As-Passed Bill Text (PDF)
• ​Parliamentary Library Bills Digest​
• ​Second-Reading Hansard (House)​
• ​Third-Reading Hansard (House)​

🆕 New DAs This Week

📍 Cranbourne East is heating up again.

A fresh DA has landed at 4 Nelson Street for a new childcare centre, lodged with Casey City Council under PA25-0393.

This southeast growth pocket is booming:

• 📈 Population growth: +9.1% per annum since 2019
• 👶 0–4s: 11% of the population; that's double the VIC average
• 🏡 Average household size: 3.14
• 💸 Rents are real: $475,800 net (plus GST) achieved for 122 places nearby ($3,900/place)

🔎 Demand/Supply Snapshot

This isn't just a childcare play, it's a multi-sector gap:

📌 Existing DAs in the Main Service Area

There are other childcare-related DAs already lodged or approved in the same service area catchment including:

1240 Ballarto Road, Cranbourne East VIC 3977
​
​🏗️ Planning application lodged (PA25‑0328)​
​🧾 Proposed for a 122-place centre as part of a larger mixed-use DA (incl. service station and gym)
💰 Lease reportedly secured at $475,800 + GST, but not yet approved or operational

📉 Despite rapid growth and facilities further afield, the immediate catchment lacks basic services — no GP, no dental, no gym.So residents are driving elsewhere, creating clear first-mover opportunities.

➡️ Scroll down for other notable DAs lodged this week.

🏗️ Punchbowl NSW 2196

New Child Care Centre
📍 38 Gowrie Avenue, Punchbowl NSW 2196
📅 7 Aug 2025
🔗 Info (Canterbury-Bankstown Council)

🏗️ Blacktown NSW 2148

Two-storey Child Care Centre
📍 7 Oxford Street, Blacktown NSW 2148
📅 7 Aug 2025
🔗 Info (Blacktown City Council)

🏗️ Doonside NSW 2767

New Two-Storey Child Care Centre
📍 61 Coveny Street, Doonside NSW 2767
📅 7 Aug 2025
🔗 Info (Blacktown City Council)

🏗️ Highfields QLD 4352

MCU/RAL for Child Care + Recreation Facility
📍 1A Cawdor Road, Highfields QLD 4352
📅 7 Aug 2025
🔗 Info (Toowoomba Regional Council)

🏗️ Riverstone NSW 2765

New Centre-Based Child Care Facility
📍 28 Mcculloch Street, Riverstone NSW 2765
📅 7 Aug 2025
🔗 Info (Blacktown City Council)

🏗️ Thornbury VIC 3071

Use of Land for a Child Care Centre
📍 200 Smith Street, Thornbury VIC 3071
📅 7 Aug 2025
🔗 Info (Darebin City Council)

🏗️ Rouse Hill NSW 2155

New Child Care Centre
📍 101/595 Withers Road, Rouse Hill NSW 2155
📅 7 Aug 2025
🔗 Info (The Hills Shire Council)

🏗️ Dubbo NSW 2830

New Child Care Centre
📍 131 Thompson Street, Dubbo NSW 2830
📅 7 Aug 2025
🔗 Info (Dubbo Regional Council)

🏗️ Tarneit VIC 3029

Use of Land for Child Care Centre
📍 23 Hurst Drive, Tarneit VIC 3029
📅 7 Aug 2025
🔗 Info (Wyndham City Council)

🏗️ Meadow Heights VIC 3048

New Child Care Centre
📍 55–63 Paringa Boulevard, Meadow Heights VIC 3048
📅 7 Aug 2025
🔗 Info (Hume City Council)

🏗️ Caulfield North VIC 3161

New Child Care Centre
📍 249 Glen Eira Road, Caulfield North VIC 3161
📅 7 Aug 2025
🔗 Info (Glen Eira Council)

💡 Making your next childcare move?

Optivest backs developers, operators & investors with:

✔️ Gap intel to spot high-demand zones
✔️ Network planning to guide growth
✔️ Site acquisition to lock in the best locations

👋 Get in touch:
📞 0402 359 305
📧 jeff.gardner@optivest.com.au
🌐 Learn more: optivest.com.au​

🚀
CREW is published by Jeff Gardner​
​See you next Friday @ 9am AEST