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📆 Friday, 1 August 2025 | BNE | Fine 11°
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Good morning...
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🎬 Finally caught Wes Anderson’s The Phoenician Scheme.

It’s no Grand Budapest Hotel, but still a wonderful pastel-soaked puzzle — full of flair, flawless framing, and that unmistakable Anderson aesthetic.

Benicio del Toro as chain-smoking patriarch Zsa-Zsa Korda?

Only Wes could make that work.

The interiors?

Balance, poise, and the perfect palette.

Anderson’s aesthetic precision, dry wit, and ensemble storytelling never gets old.

🪑But, I was the only person in the cinema; Monday, 8:30pm.

Felt like I’d stepped into a liminal space; familiar, yet eerily in-between.

No chatter, no popcorn rustle, just me and the screen.

Sometimes the absence is the experience.

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🎬 The Phoenician Scheme isn’t really about childcare.

But it is about something eerily familiar:
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An ageing industrialist chasing one last mega‑project…
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A daughter, once estranged, pulled into the family business…
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And a globe‑trotting race to secure land, capital, and social licence.

Sound familiar?

🧠 It’s the familiar tension between ambition and restraint, scale and suitability — the trade‑offs every developer, operator, and investor must weigh as the sector matures.

It’s the classic real estate dilemma: go big, go fast — or go home?
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Growth still matters. But what kind of growth, where, and for whom?

🧭 In today's CREW

🚨 One Strike = Shutdown
🧭 Your PDA Playbook
🗺️ North Harbour PDA
💡 Behind The DA - Palmview Q
🏗️ LDC Supply vs Demand -10 yr lookback
🚧 Build Watch: 130‑place ELC in Joyner Q
🆕 New DAs - From Kurri Kurri to Karrinyup
🎯 Just for CREW readers

🚨 One Strike = Shutdown

🛡️ The Compliance Shock - Now Law

The Early Childhood Safety Bill 2025 (formally the Early Childhood Education and Care — Strengthening Regulation of Early Education — Bill 2025) passed both houses of Parliament last night — House on 29 July, Senate on 31 July — and now awaits Royal Assent.

Canberra now has the power to suspend or cancel Child Care Subsidy (CCS) payments after a single serious safety breach, and to name-and-shame offending centres — a regulatory grenade for the childcare property market.

💥 What’s changed

⚡️ Why it matters

• CCS ≈ 70 % of revenue — lose it and a centre hits cash arrest in weeks.
• Network contagion: multi-site operators risk dozens of dark leases overnight.
• Valuation reset: compliance stains widen cap rates; sub-5 % yields may be history.
• Investor chill: G8 Education (ASX:GEM) is already ≈ 30 % down YTD.

🧯 Who’s on notice?

NSW alone logged 19,000+ serious breaches in 2024 yet issued just eight fines (< $2 k total).

The soft-touch era is over.

Notorious cases:

• 🚫 Jumpstart (NSW): force-feeding; $186 k fines; operator banned
• ⚠️ Affinity Education: 1,900+ breaches incl. “human mop” case
• 🧷 Only About Children: multiple assault findings; staff sacked, centres stayed open
• ☣️ G8 Education: chemical exposures, escapes, mould; dozens of show-cause notices

💡 CREW playbook

🔍 Extra intel you can act on

• Insurance pinch: premiums rising for centres with compliance flags; some lenders now demand upgraded cover at settlement.
• AI-enabled CCTV: $12-18 k cap-ex can cut manual incident logs ≈ 60 %; some insurers discount.
• Pipeline pause: DA lodgements down 15–20 % YoY — undersupply looms by 2027.
• $1 bn Building Early Education Fund: draft guidelines hint at grants covering up to one-third of project costs in priority suburbs.
• Board-level governance: PE & family offices are asking for independent directors with child-safety chops.

🔮 What happens next

• September → Royal assent
• Q1 2026 → First national audits begin
• ⚠️ First strike = CCS suspension

🧭 Bottom line

Location still matters, but governance now shares the podium.
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One compliance lapse can vaporise rent and crater valuations.

Developers and investors who pivot to compliance-ready assets and partner with values-driven, data-literate operators will seize share while the majors regroup.

🧭 SEQ Growth: Your PDA Playbook

Queensland and Victoria face the same housing squeeze, but their solutions couldn’t be more different.

• Victoria doubles down on density (townhouses, apartments).
• Queensland pivots back to suburban sprawl (new satellite cities).

🏗️ Why it matters:

SEQ’s Priority Development Areas (PDAs); North Harbour, Waraba, Greater Flagstone, and Ripley Valley are the frontlines of QLD’s return to suburban expansion.

Risks & Rewards:

• Sprawl = quicker housing supply, but higher infrastructure, congestion, and environmental costs.
• Density = efficient growth, but slowed by pushback, approvals, and infrastructure delays.

Bottom line:
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Both approaches have merits.

But SEQ's sprawl push means childcare, healthcare, and retail developers must move early to capture growth upside.

🎯 PDAs Decoded: EDQ’s Fast‑Track Playbook

Coming up in CREW: Your guide to every Priority Development Area (PDA) in Queensland.

We kick off with North Harbour.

Waraba, Greater Flagstone, and a Ripley Valley update drop next.

✨ Orientation — PDAs & EDQ

EDQ — Economic Development Queensland

• 👷‍♂️ What: State agency as developer, planner, and infrastructure financier.
• 📜 Why it matters: EDQ controls planning, fast-tracks approvals, and co‑funds roads, water, and parks.

PDA — Priority Development Area

• 🚧 What: Fast-track growth zones where EDQ overrides local councils.
• ⏱️ Why it matters: Cuts DA approvals from years to weeks—unlocking housing, roads, and investment.

📍 SEQ’s PDA Strategy

Four flagship PDAs are now spearheading SEQ’s new housing boom:

• North Harbour
• Waraba
• Greater Flagstone
• Ripley Valley

🏠 Scale Check

These PDAs will deliver 135,000+ new homes (more than Canberra’s total households), creating massive early-stage demand for childcare, healthcare, and convenience retail.

🛠️ EDQ’s Fast‑Track Machine

EDQ is accelerating supply—and creating early demand for essential services—via:

• Catalyst Infrastructure Fund (CIF)​
  🛠️ Roads, water, sewer
  🔓 Delivered ~37,000 serviced lots
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• Growth Area Compact (GAC)​
  🛠️ Aligns agency spending
  🔓 Ensures timely lot delivery
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• Building Acceleration Fund (BAF)​
  🛠️ Co-invests in works outside PDAs
  🔓 Unlocked ~7,000 lots (no defaults)
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• Fast-track KPIs​
  🛠️ Approval clarity
  🔓 Targets rapid processing:
  • 40 business days (DAs)
  • 30 days (offsets)
  • 10 days (charges notices)

⚡ Impact for Early Movers

EDQ underwrites infrastructure certainty, removing feasibility risk for developers.

👶 Childcare’s PDA Opportunity

Childcare developments in PDAs benefit from:

✅ First-mover advantage in new suburbs
✅ EDQ fast-tracking, not slow councils
✅ Certainty in housing and infrastructure
✅ Catchment growth outstripping supply

Thousands of young families will settle SEQ’s new suburban frontier.

Early movers will win prime positions, enrolment growth, and market share.

🧭 North Harbour PDA: Marina meets masterplan

📍 42 km north of Brisbane | Canal estate vision | 3,700 homes to come

A 785-hectare waterfront city is rising in Burpengary East.

And with a 400-berth marina, retail precinct with full-line supermarket, and industrial precinct on the way, this is high‑conviction childcare territory.

🏗️ PDA status & rollout

• Officially declared a PDA on 30 July 2025
• Interim Land Use Plan (ILUP) approved including an early release area containing approximately 250 lots

But this isn’t a blank canvas:
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🏘️ 3,000+ residents already live here, with homes delivered since the mid‑2010s under normal council approvals.

Over 28 hectares of industrial land sold and settled and next stages currently under construction.
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The PDA overlay now accelerates the final 3,700 homes with major infrastructure already contracted and operational.

🛠️ Major works already completed

• North Harbour Boulevard including connection to Buchanan Road interchange
• Ultimate water and sewerage supply trunk infrastructure
• Buckley Road upgrades with further upgrades in design.

📊 Childcare market checkpoint (2 km radius)

🧍 7,034 residents (2024)
👶 661 children aged 0–5
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🏫 3 operating centres with 315 existing places:
• Edge (120 pl) [Pics]
• Busy Bees (120 pl)
• Goodstart (75 pl)

🚧 Under construction further afield:
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• Happy Hearts (Avaline by KDL, 90 places, opening September 2025)
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​ 🏗️ Plus recent new approval within North Harbour: 150‑place ELC at Buckley Rd & Fraser Dr (44 on‑site car spaces)

🏫 School and retail precincts pipeline
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​ 🎒 Primary School incoming:
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​Education Queensland has acquired three lots at Buckley Rd & Fraser Drive, within walking distance for many residents.
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📅 Timing: Delivery being planned, but no funding or opening date yet.

📸📽️ Pics & Clips​

🛍️ North Harbour Central:
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A neighbourhood hub anchored by a major full-line supermarket, plus:
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• Fast food outlets, tavern, bulk liquor, medical suites
• Office, childcare, carwash, service station
• Up to 240 childcare places (likely across 2 centres)

📸📽️ Pics & Clips ​

📎 The bottom line

465 places (315 existing + 150 recently approved) ▶️ market is balanced.
But with steep growth ahead, projected ~1,600 under-5s in the catchment by 2035. 🚀⚠️

🏢 Leasing interest?​
👤 Mike Kreis
✉️ mike@northharbour.com.au​

🏗️ Behind the DA: Palmview

250‑Place Super‑Centre

A first-mover super-centre lodged by Living Choice Australia.

📍 Fast facts (DA: MCU25/0197)

• Site: Lot 1 of Lot 351 SP308281, Peter Crosby Way, Palmview QLD
• Location: Flame Tree Rise (Structure Plan Area B) — not AVID’s Harmony
• Applicant / Owner: LCA Palmview Pty Ltd (Living Choice Australia SPV)
• Capacity: 250 children │ 41 staff │ 6 :30 am – 6 :30 pm
• Design: 2,079 m² GFA │ 1,751 m² outdoor play │ single‑storey build
• Parking: 77 bays → 1 / 3.25 children (traffic study benchmark 1 / 3.42–3.74)
• Assessment: Code‑assessable — zero public notification
• Civil works: Bulk earthworks & services approved (OPW24/0253)
• Architect / Planner: Marlowe Architecture / Innovative Planning Solutions

🥇 First‑mover scale

• Palmview & Village Green estates = 6,800+ lots → 18,000+ residents at build‑out → ≈ 1,080 under‑5s.

• 250 places = only 23 % of forecast demand — but big enough to blunt rival DAs early.

📸📽️ Pics & Clips​

🧭 Location clarity

Despite the “Harmony” brand, the block sits across Peter Crosby Way in Living Choice’s Flame Tree Rise — name reflects catchment, not title.

🏙️ Future pipeline

Palmview Structure Plan flags three 0.3 ha Local Community Facility (LCF) lots (two in Harmony, one in Village Green).

Key points
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• Purpose‑built: Structure plans like Palmview carve out these sites so essential services (childcare, medical, civic, worship) land early, close to rooftops.
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• Typical size:≈ 0.3 ha (3,000 m²) — enough for a 90‑120‑place ELC or a single‑storey medical hub.
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• Permitted uses: child care, GP / allied health, community halls, places of worship, small‑format civic offices.
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• Planning benefit: Because the land is pre‑designated “Community Facilities,” developers avoid costly rezoning battles and councils lock in social‑infrastructure coverage.
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• Palmview context: The structure plan earmarks three such LCF lots across Harmony and Village Green to complement the 250‑place super‑centre. Community facilities are an explicit pillar of the plan’s “Strategic Outcome 9 – Community Wellbeing.”

🌏 How big is too big?

If built, Palmview will crack Australia’s Top‑10 by number of places and become the Sunshine Coast’s largest LDC licence.

🤔 Why go jumbo?

1. First‑mover moat — one oversize licence can soak up latent demand and deter copy‑cat DAs.
2. Land economics — big pad cuts cost‑per‑place ≈ 15 % vs a 120‑place build.
3. Cross‑sell — Living Choice’s retirement holdings invite inter‑generational amenity and shared infra funding.

🛑 Reality checks

• Regulatory glare — >200‑place approvals trigger deeper quality & ratio reviews; expect extra innings before licence sign‑off.
• Staffing cliff — needs ≈ 55 FTE educators; Sunshine Coast talent pool already stretched.
• Ramp‑up risk — regional‑metro fringe giants often launch at 60–70 % occupancy, dragging EBIT for 18‑24 mths.
• Parking cap — Holland Traffic’s 1 / 3.25 ratio must hold; any uplift blows site plan.

Will it pass? DA refusal is unlikely (code track), but Service Approval will face intense scrutiny on staffing pipeline, enrolment management and program quality.

🎯 What to watch

Developers — Super‑centre wins the land grab but lengthens lease‑up. Next sites (90‑120 places) remain viable on LCF lots.

Operators — Model market as “mega + boutique” rather than a multi‑centre race. JV beats price war.

Investors / REITs — Underwrite to 70 % year‑1 occupancy; demand rock‑solid covenant and marketing muscle.

Financiers — Stress‑test staffing lead times & ramp‑up. Hold extra contingency for a staggered opening.

🧮 10-Year Scorecard: LDC Supply vs Demand

2015–24 pipeline​
• ~3,300 new centres → ~300, 000 places
• State split (places added):
– NSW ~100, 000 │ VIC ~80,000 │ QLD ~55,000 │ WA ~35,000
– SA ~20,000 │ ACT ~10,000 │ TAS & NT < 10,000

Dec 2024 catch-up gap​
• Demand = 0–4 pop × 45 % participation ÷ 88 % utilisation
• Shortfall: ~89,000 places → ~1,000 centres

🔭 Pace Check

• Today’s pace: ~100 centres/yr
• Required pace: ~290 centres/yr
• Gap to close: ~190 centres/yr

📊 CREW Takeaways

🏗️ Developers​
• Build ~190 extra centres/yr on top of today’s ~100/yr.
• Action: Lock in A+ sites & DAs now.

🧒 Operators​
• Demand–Supply Ratio (kids-per-place) > 2+ signals gap; true deserts aren’t viable.
• Action: Target 90–120 place builds or 60-place infill.

💰 Investors/REITs​
• Year 1 occupancy ~60–70 %; wages rising 3–5 %.
• Action: Stress-test DSCR at 60–70 % occupancy + wage inflation.

🏦 Financiers​
• Greenfield & infill financing both accelerating.
• Action: Model 12-month hiring lag & < 80 % Year 1 occupancy.

🏛️ Policymakers​
• Private sector can deliver ~70 % of the gap.
• Action: Target grants to remote/low-SEIFA zones.

🚧 Build Watch: 130‑place ELC in Joyner

Quick pulse on centres rising right now.​

📍 10–16 Regent St, Joyner QLD
🧱 Bulk earthworks underway

🍼 From swim school to super-service

Originally approved with a swim school, this site has been reconfigured by KDL Property Group into a full-scale childcare centre, now expanded to 130 places across seven rooms.

📐 Design snapshot

• 👶 130 places | 20 staff | 7 activity rooms
• 📐 GFA: 964.1m² | Playscape: 912.2m²
• 🚗 40 car parks (including 23 staff) + SRV bay + 5 bike racks
• 🧱 Site cover reduced by nearly 7% from original scheme

🚘 Traffic & access

• Traffic increase: +28 AM peak trips
• Nearby intersections future-proofed with roundabout upgrades
• Parking comfortably meets projected demand
• Refuse and service vehicles turn on-site without reversing

🔇 Noise control

Outdoor play areas sit close to residential zones but are fully enclosed with acoustic fencing (up to 2.5m) and covered zones. Noise modelling confirms compliance across all day parts.

🗑️ Waste & servicing

• Dual-bin waste system in place
• On-site collection scheduled outside peak hours
• Dedicated waste caretaker will manage bin movement and hygiene

🏗️ Developer intel

This childcare centre is being delivered by a southeast Queensland developer with multiple residential projects in growth corridors. The group also owns adjacent lots to the ELC site, also being developed now.

🧭 CREW Outlook

This is a strategic childcare deployment in an growth location, leveraging new density and demand in Joyner’s evolving suburban fringe. With bulk earthworks underway, vertical construction is likely to follow soon.

📸📽️ Pics & Clips​

🆕 New DAs

From Kurri Kurri to Karrinyup, this week’s alerts feature 25 fresh childcare proposals, including modifications, constructions, change applications, and expansions.
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​ Here’s what’s new:

1. 🧱 Kurri Kurri NSW 2327
   Modification – Deletion of a Condition of Consent for Childcare Facility
   📍 132 Northcote St, Kurri Kurri NSW 2327
   🏛️ Cessnock City Council | DA: 8/2022/1094/3
   🔗 Info​
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2. 🏡 Wadalba NSW 2259
   New Childcare Centre
   📍 1 Jade Place, Wadalba NSW
   🏛️ Central Coast Council | DA: DA/990/2025
   🔗 Info​
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3. 🏗️ Punchbowl NSW 2196
   Consolidation of Allotments, Demolition & Structural Design for Childcare above Basement Parking
   📍 50A Wattle Street, Punchbowl NSW 2196
   🏛️ Canterbury-Bankstown Council | DA: CC-277/2025/A
   🔗 Info​
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4. 🏗️ Ambarvale NSW 2560
   Alterations & Additions to Existing Childcare Centre
   📍 Wickfield Circuit, Ambarvale NSW 2560
   🏛️ Campbelltown City Council | DA: 3372/2025/DA-U
   🔗 Info​
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5. 🏗️ Menangle Park NSW 2563
   Demolition of Existing Structures & Construction of 72-Place Facility
   📍 12 Taber Street, Menangle Park NSW 2563
   🏛️ Campbelltown City Council | DA: 3226/2025/DA-C
   🔗 Info​
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6. 🏡 Mount Eliza VIC 3930
   Use & Development for Childcare Centre (per endorsed plans)
   📍 185 Mount Eliza Way, Mount Eliza VIC 3930
   🏛️ Mornington Peninsula Shire Council | DA: P05/1108.10
   🔗 Info​
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7. 🏡 Balnarring VIC 3926
   Development of Childcare Centre (permit extension/removal)
   📍 15 Civic Court, Balnarring VIC 3926
   🏛️ Mornington Peninsula Shire Council | DA: P25/1255
   🔗 Info​
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8. 🏗️ Cranbourne West VIC 3977
   Development of Childcare & Medical Centre under existing approval
   📍 195 Duff Street, Cranbourne West VIC 3977
   🏛️ Casey City Council | DA: PA25-0355
   🔗 Info​
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9. 🏡 Rhodes NSW 2138
   Fit-Out & Use of Childcare Centre
   📍 33 – 41 Blaxland Road, Rhodes NSW 2138
   🏛️ City of Canada Bay | DA: DA2025/0139
   🔗 Info​
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10. 🏗️ Blacktown NSW 2148
    Demolition of Structures & Early Hours Works for New Centre
    📍 21 Allawah Street, Blacktown NSW 2148
    🏛️ Blacktown City Council | DA: DA-25-01185
    🔗 Info​
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11. 🏡 Grantham Farm NSW 2765
    Installation of Play Areas & Fencing for Childcare Facility
    📍 1 Homestead Lane, Grantham Farm NSW 2765
    🏛️ Blacktown City Council | DA: DA-25-01208
    🔗 Info​
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12. 🏡 Tyabb VIC 3913
    Use & Development of Childcare Centre (per endorsed plans)
    📍 1 The Crescent, Tyabb VIC 3913
    🏛️ Mornington Peninsula Shire Council | DA: P22/2675.01
    🔗 Info​
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13. 🧱 Clyde North VIC 3978
    Amendment to Permit PA24-XXXX (Car Parking Requirements)
    📍 2S Cresswell Street, Clyde North VIC 3978
    🏛️ Casey City Council | DA: PPA25-0083
    🔗 Info​
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14. 🧱 Box Hill NSW 2765
    Section 4.55(2) Modification to Increase Capacity to 100 Children
    📍 142 Old Pitt Town Road, Box Hill NSW 2765
    🏛️ The Hills Shire Council | DA: 1017/2022/HA/A
    🔗 Info​
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15. 🧱 Box Hill NSW 2765
    Amending Development Consent under the Act
    📍 21–25 Timbercrest Street, Box Hill NSW 2765
    🏛️ The Hills Shire Council | DA: 64/2026/PC
    🔗 Info​
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16. 🧱 Kellyville NSW 2155
    Section 4.55(2) Modification for Child Care Facility
    📍 44 Windsor Road, Kellyville NSW 2155
    🏛️ The Hills Shire Council | DA: 1528/2021/HA/A
    🔗 Info​
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17. 🏡 Jesmond NSW 2299
    Centre-Based Child Care Facility & Kitchen Alterations
    📍 56 Mordue Parade, Jesmond NSW 2299
    🏛️ The City of Newcastle | DA: DA2025/00797
    🔗 Info​
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18. 🏗️ Hillvue NSW 2340
    PAN-556036 – Construction of Child Care Facility
    📍 355 Goonoo Goonoo Road, Hillvue NSW 2340
    🏛️ Tamworth Regional Council | DA: DA2026-0027
    🔗 Info​
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19. 🏡 Thrumster NSW 2444
    Centre-Based Childcare Centre
    📍 College Dr, Thrumster NSW 2444
    🏛️ Port Macquarie-Hastings Council | DA: 719.2025.125.1
    🔗 Info​
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20. 🧱 Muswellbrook NSW 2333
    S8.2 Review – Early Education & Child Care Facility
    📍 200 Bridge St, Muswellbrook NSW 2333
    🏛️ Muswellbrook Shire Council | DA: 72/2023/2
    🔗 Info​
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21. 🏡 Carnes Hill NSW 2171
    Landscaping, Carpark Works & Signage for New Centre
    📍 Carnes Hill Shopping Centre, 245 Cowpasture Road, Carnes Hill NSW 2171
    🏛️ Liverpool City Council | DA: DA-332/2025
    🔗 Info​
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22. 🏡 Auburn NSW 2144
    Signage & Childcare Centre Construction Consent
    📍 18–24 Kerr Parade, Auburn NSW 2144
    🏛️ Cumberland Council | DA: DA2025/0512
    🔗 Info​
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23. 🧱 Greystanes NSW 2145
    Modification to Existing Centre – Increase from 40 to 42 Places
    📍 15 Hyacinth Street, Greystanes NSW 2145
    🏛️ Cumberland Council | DA: MOD2025/0223
    🔗 Info​
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24. 🏗️ The Ponds NSW 2769
    Construction of Childcare Centre over Basement Parking
    📍 84 Amarco Circuit, The Ponds NSW 2769
    🏛️ Blacktown City Council | DA: CC-25-00698
    🔗 Info​
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25. 🏡 Karrinyup WA 6018
    Addition to Child Care Centre (Commercial Works)
    📍 22 Davenport Street, Karrinyup WA 6018
    🏛️ City of Stirling | DA: DA25/1005
    🔗 Info​

🔚 Over & Out

Thanks for reading this week’s CREW!

🔜 Next up:

🎙️I had an insightful and valuable conversation with Hilary Knights, Queensland Director of Childcare Concepts, this week.

She shared her off-market playbook, pricing benchmarks, and value-add hacks.

Hilary runs her brokerage like a Private Banker: white-glove, discreet, ruthlessly effective.

Plenty of insights to share.

See you next Friday @ 9am AEST. 🚀

📝 Contact

CREW is published by Jeff Gardner.

0402 359 305
jeff.gardner@optivest.com.au