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📢 28 February 2025 | Elwood, Melbourne | Mostly Sunny 20°

Good morning! 👋

Here’s your weekly dose of childcare real estate insights.

🔥 Inside this week’s CREW:

• 🛠 NSW Childcare Centre Development: Big Stalled Pipeline
• 🏡 Queensland’s Growth Zones: Where to look for opportunities in PDAs
• 🏠 Victoria’s Housing Shake-Up: What It Means for Childcare Development
• 🚧 DA Alerts: Track recent childcare Development Applications
• 📜 Deal Digest: Key Transactions Shaping the Market
• 🏚️ Another Genius Centre Shuts Down Over Unpaid Rent
• 📅 Upcoming Events: Mark Your Calendar

Let’s dive in. 👇

🛠 NSW Childcare Centre Development: Big Stalled Pipeline

⚠️ 716 projects in the NSW pipeline, but many are stalled due to rising costs, labour shortages, financing challenges, poor site selection, and operator disinterest.
⚠️ Developers need lower-cost builds, opting for single-level schemes with at-grade parking. No basements. Preferred by operators too.

📊 NSW Childcare Development Pipeline

⚠️ Western Sydney leads in development, with Blacktown and Canterbury-Bankstown emerging as hotspots. However, many projects remain stuck in the planning or approval stages. Big pig in the python.

👶 Demand vs. Demographics

• Childcare attendance up 2.3% annually over the last decade, reaching 277,160 children.
• Government support remains strong, with $3.36B in subsidies Q3 2024.

📊 NSW Childcare Demand Trends

• Birth rates are declining, raising questions about long-term demand for childcare spaces. 🚩

💥 Western Sydney Competition Insight:

• Viable, approved sites occasionally hit the market—and are snapped up quickly.
• Strong demand from owner-occupiers, developers, and investors for well-located childcare sites.
• DA-Approved Childcare Site at 7 Pipehead Crescent, Guildford sold for $33,333 per place with a 30-day settlement.
• Ray White Commercial Western Sydney has sold 49 childcare development sites. Good ones sell fast.
• RWC holding multiple buyer mandates for sites ranging from 50 to 120 places across greater Sydney.

🔎 What It Means:

• Stalled pipeline = challenge and opportunity.
• New childcare centres are in short supply, but strategic players can unlock development.
• We’re digging into the stalled pipeline to uncover sites that can be reimagined, reconfigured, and recapitalised. 💰

🚀 Opportunity for Optivest Alliance Members:

• Exclusive access to stalled pipeline analysis for Members.

📍 Why It Matters:

• Stalled pipeline = targeted development sites + hidden opportunities.
• It’s not about waiting; it’s about capitalising on sunk investment.
• Unlock value where others are stuck.

💡 Insight:

• The right team can help mitigate and manage cost inflation, labour shortages, and financing constraints.
• Strategic developers who can reactivate or reimagine stalled projects will find significant opportunities.

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🏗️🏡 Childcare Boom: Where to look for opportunities in Queensland’s Growth Zones

Big Picture: Queensland’s Priority Development Areas (PDAs) are supercharging housing, jobs, and infrastructure—creating major opportunities for new childcare centres. With 300,000+ new residents expected, the demand for early childhood education is set to soar. 📈

Why It Matters: PDAs fast-track development, meaning childcare developers and operators who act early can secure prime sites, access growth markets, and build a sustainable deal flow. 🏡👶

🏗️ Where the Growth Is

1️⃣ Master-Planned Family Suburbs → High Demand for Local Centres

✅ Greater Flagstone (51,500 homes, 138K people)
✅ Yarrabilba (20,000 homes, 50K people)
✅ Ripley Valley (48,750 homes, 131K people)
✅ Caloundra South (20,000 homes, 15K jobs)
✅ Waraba (30,000 homes, 70K people, new in 2024)

🔹 What to do: JV with land developers to secure sites early near town centres, schools & retail hubs to capitalise on family-driven demand. 📍

2️⃣ Urban Renewal Hubs → Growing Need for Childcare in Dense Areas

✅ Woolloongabba (24K residents, 34K jobs, near stadium & Cross River Rail)
✅ Northshore Hamilton (15K homes, 15K workers, waterfront precinct)
✅ Bowen Hills (High-density, near RBWH hospital)
✅ Southport (Gold Coast CBD revitalisation, 23K+ residents)
✅ Maroochydore City Centre (Sunshine Coast’s new CBD, major job hub)

🔹 What to do: Target mixed-use developments, co-locate in commercial towers & explore employer-sponsored childcare. 🏢👶

3️⃣ Employment Powerhouses → Growing Need for Work-Based Childcare
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✅ Sunshine Coast Airport (Aerospace & tourism jobs)
✅ Herston Quarter (Hospital & research precinct)
✅ Toowoomba Railway Parklands (Employment hub)
✅ Queen’s Wharf Brisbane (CBD tourism & commercial growth)
✅ Boggo Road & Roma Street (Cross River Rail station precincts)

🔹 What to do: Offer employer-linked childcare, flexible hours for shift workers & high-quality early learning near job clusters. 🏢👩‍⚕️

4️⃣ Regional Boom Zones → First-Mover Advantage in Underserved Areas
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✅ Mackay Waterfront (Tourism & residential growth)
✅ Townsville City Waterfront (30K more people & jobs)
✅ Gladstone PDAs (Industrial growth, residential expansion)
✅ The Mill at Moreton Bay (University & knowledge precinct)
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🔹 What to do: Find government incentives, develop hybrid models (long daycare + occasional care), and secure sites near town centres. 💡

5️⃣ Government-Backed Social Housing & Urban Revitalisation
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✅ Oxley (Planned family housing community)
✅ Yeronga (New community centre + mixed housing)
✅ Toondah Harbour (Future waterfront town)
✅ Weinam Creek (Gateway to island communities)

🔹 What to do: Partner with Councils for subsidised sites, offer community-oriented childcare & focus on affordability models. 🤝

🚀 Next Steps: Seize the Opportunity Now

🔹 Secure prime locations ahead of the curve—lock in sites before demand accelerates and competition intensifies.
🔹 Engage developers, councils, and operators immediately to form partnerships and gain early access to high-potential locations.
🔹 Explore co-location opportunities with schools, community hubs, and employment precincts to maximise foot traffic and visibility.
🔹 Innovate with flexible care models like extended hours, shift worker solutions, and hybrid care options to meet the evolving needs of modern families.
🔹 Tap into government incentives and urban renewal programs to maximise funding opportunities and enhance your development’s sustainability.

Where do you see the biggest growth potential in these emerging markets?

🏠 Victoria’s Housing Shake-Up 🚧

💥 The big picture: The Victorian government is cracking down on councils to boost housing approvals—or face intervention.

🏗️ What’s new:

🔹 Council Ultimatum: Approve more housing, or the state will step in.

🔹 Growth Targets Shift: Some councils must increase approvals, while others see cuts.

🔹 Townhouse Boom: A new code fast-tracks approvals for up to 3-storey townhouses.

🔹 New Activity Centres: 25 more areas designated for high-density housing, adding 300,000 homes across 50 centres by 2051.

📊 Projected Housing Growth by 2051 🟢 Some areas will double in size. Others? Not so much.

Key Locations: 📍 Affluent Suburbs: Prahran, South Yarra, Windsor. 🚉 Transport Hubs: Cranbourne-Pakenham line, including Noble Park & Dandenong. 🚋 Tram Corridors: High St in Thornbury & St Georges Rd.

🔥 Bar Graph: Revised Targets - Housing goals for Melbourne councils have been adjusted

🔥 The Debate:

✅ Supporters say: Faster approvals = More homes = Lower prices.

❌ Critics argue: It’s a one-size-fits-all approach that alters neighbourhoods.

🚧 NIMBYs say: Get off my lawn! 🚷

📉 Biggest Housing Target Cuts:

🔻 Some councils lose up to 20% of planned housing growth.

​📥 ​Download the list​​

📈 Housing Growth Projections (2023 - 2051)

🔮 Some LGAs will see huge surges in homes. Others? Flat growth.
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Government's Stance:

🔹 Premier Jacinta Allan: Areas were selected for their transport access, jobs, and services.

🔹 Community Consultation: Planning controls for all 50 activity centres will be finalised next year.

Opposition Concerns: 🔻 Critics, including opposition planning spokesperson Richard Riordan, worry these developments will change Melbourne’s character.

🚀 What’s next: The government insists these changes are critical to solving the housing crisis. But will Councils fall in line—or fight back?

🚧 DA Alerts: Stay Ahead of the Curve

💡 Why It Matters:

🔍 Stay informed: Tracking new ECEC supply helps identify hidden opportunities.​
⚖️ Gain an edge: Competitive intelligence on upcoming centres shapes investment decisions.​
🚀 First-mover advantage: Early DA tracking lets you take strategic market actions.
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📍 Some of this month's Development Applications 👇